Rent vs. buy calculator for 50 metros

How long do you need to stay for buying to beat renting?

In this scenario, the first crossing ranges from 7 years 8 months in Pittsburgh to no crossing within 30 years. Houston crosses at 13.4 years, Dallas at 20.3, and San Antonio at 21.1; Austin does not cross within the modeled period.¹

Break-even means the buyer’s wealth after selling the home, paying selling expenses and repaying the mortgage first exceeds the renter’s wealth. The renter keeps the cash that buying would have consumed and invests differences in monthly spending. The calculation also credits the buyer with invested savings whenever owning later becomes cheaper. Principal reduces the debt deducted from the eventual sale proceeds.

The median gives each metro one observation. The ordering includes all 50 metros, including the 14 with no crossing within the window. Its two middle observations are Dallas and San Antonio. Break-even years are shown to one decimal for comparison, not as precise costs for any one home.

The universe is the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the 50 states and District of Columbia by 2025 ACS population, excluding Puerto Rico. That differs from Zillow’s older size ranking: Fresno and Grand Rapids are included, while Buffalo and New Orleans are outside this top 50.⁵

Are mortgage rates expected to go down in 2027?

The original forecasts disagree: Fannie Mae’s October forecast has a 7.5% annual average, MBA has 7.2% in the first three quarters and 7.1% in the fourth, and Goldman Sachs describes a 6.4% level in 2027. A borrower’s rate depends on the loan and lender.^{7, 8, 9}

Fannie Mae’s September 11 forecast put the 2027 annual average at 6.7%; the October 12 version raised it by 0.8 percentage point. Its rate assumptions were dated September 30. The newer observed Freddie Mac weekly average is 7.11% on November 12, down from 7.18% on November 5. The calculator starts with the observed rate, while the forecasts inform the range of scenarios.^{7, 2}

The 0.5%–1.1% range spans different price indexes and endpoints. NAR’s November 6 outlook omits a comparable 2027 figure.¹⁰

NAR’s November 12 release puts October existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million. The annual rate expresses the pace implied by that month’s sales.¹¹

What does a rent vs buy calculator need to include?

It needs the entire ownership cost and the value of keeping cash available for investment. Comparing rent with principal and interest alone misses property tax, insurance, maintenance and the substantial cost of entering and leaving a home.¹²

Freddie Mac describes typical purchase closing costs as 2%–5%. The model uses 3%, which covers transaction costs and excludes prepaid amounts already counted in recurring expenses. Selling costs default to 6% and are adjustable. PMI stands for private mortgage insurance, which protects the lender. The model assumes a current, non-high-risk conventional loan and automatic termination when the scheduled balance reaches 78% of original value or the loan passes its midpoint.^{13, 14}

Insurance and maintenance grow on annual anniversaries, as does renter insurance. Property taxes rise on annual anniversaries at the assumed annual home-price growth rate—1% in the base case. House value and investment returns accrue at monthly equivalents of their annual rates. The workbook and calculator use the same timing convention, because different cash-flow timing produces different horizons. Utilities and ordinary moving costs are excluded as assumed equal between alternatives; unequal utilities, renovations, special assessments and catastrophe policies require additional inputs.

Is renting the same kind of home really cheaper?

Matching property type narrows the comparison, but no metro index rents and prices exactly the same homes. This report pairs single-family ZHVI with single-family ZORI in all 50 metros instead of comparing a detached house with the typical apartment-inclusive rental.^{3, 4}

ZHVI is Zillow’s home-value measure, and ZORI is its rent measure. Zillow describes ZORI as measuring “changes in asking rents over time.” Repeated observations control for changes in the quality of the listed rental stock. Individual homes can still differ by neighborhood, size, condition and school access.⁴

Austin illustrates the stakes. September 2026 single-family ZORI is $2,285 a month, compared with $1,603 for the all-property series: the single-family measure is 42.5% higher. Keeping the house price and every other assumption fixed, substituting the cheaper broad rent series expands the modeled renter’s ten-year advantage from $143,273 to $262,836, which shows how much the choice of rental stock matters.^{1, 3}

The direction is not guaranteed in every metro. Rental stock can also be newer, better located or more expensive than the owner stock. The closest household comparison is a specific home’s purchase terms and a credible rental alternative with the same characteristics. The presets are starting points for that comparison.

What change in rates or prices would flip the answer?

At ten years, the table changes either the entry price or the initial mortgage rate until the two options tie. Each calculation uses 20% down and holds the other base inputs fixed.¹

Pittsburgh already favors buying by ten years, so its threshold price is above the starting value. Austin needs about 28.8% less purchase price or an initial 3.55% mortgage under the other stated assumptions. A combination of a lower price and lower rate would require smaller changes in each. A lower entry price also lowers the mortgage, down payment, purchase fees and the modeled property-tax and maintenance bases. A later price decline instead reduces the resale value of the existing purchase.

Across the full sample, reducing mortgage rates by one percentage point to 6.11% lowers the median horizon to 14.0 years. A ten-percent lower entry price lowers it to 12.8 years. Increasing annual home appreciation from 1% to 3%, without changing the mortgage, lowers it to 8.0 years. The assumed decades-long appreciation path carries more of this result than a small difference among one-year forecasts.¹

“Three percentage points of rent-growth sensitivity” means moving the assumed annual growth rate from 3% to 0% or 6%. It does not mean raising today’s rent once by 3%. The higher-entry-price median cannot be computed by replacing each missing horizon with 31 years; that would create a false point estimate.

The combined cases show the range: a shorter-break-even case with a 6.11% mortgage, 3% home growth and 6% rent growth has a 4.3-year median. The base has 20.7 years. A longer-break-even case with an 8.11% mortgage and no home-price or rent growth has no crossing in any metro within 30 years. The alternative return remains 5% after tax in all three. These cases bracket economic assumptions; they are not assigned probabilities.¹

Why do Texas taxes and insurance need a closer look?

The Texas presets show the importance of costs beyond the mortgage. Austin’s first-month owner outlay is $3,376, compared with $2,305 for single-family rent plus renter insurance, under the base assumptions.¹

For the Austin example, principal and interest are $2,266 a month, modeled property tax $468, homeowners insurance $291, and maintenance $351. The initial $96,849 buyer cash requirement includes a 20% down payment and 3% purchase costs on a $421,084 home. After ten years, modeled net sale equity is $147,413. The renter-minus-buyer invested savings balance plus the returned deposit is $290,686, yielding the $143,273 renter advantage. This credits amortization and avoids counting the down payment twice.¹

TDI’s 2025 statewide annual homeowners premium is $3,489. Its county observations show substantial local differences. Those averages are more current than the 2023 NAIC state premiums, published in July 2026, used outside Texas. A historical state average is not a current quote.^{15, 6}

The tax examples use adopted rates and jurisdiction-specific exemptions, including the $140,000 school homestead exemption. They assume an eligible general homestead, no senior/disability exemption, no assessment cap or tax ceiling, and no extra MUD/PID charge. Taxable values differ across jurisdictions, so simply adding nominal rates and applying them to the full value would be wrong.¹⁶

The tax amounts are hypothetical bills for the specified jurisdictions. The insurance amounts are county averages across policies with differing insured values. The ACS ratio used in the main comparison describes existing owners; assessment resets and exemptions can make a new buyer’s bill materially different. The workbook therefore allows a property-specific tax and insurance override.

NAIC itself warns that “Average premium is an imperfect measure of the relative ‘price’ of insurance.” Coverage, deductibles, hazards and rebuilding costs vary; insured rebuilding cost excludes land value. Flood or earthquake coverage can be additional.⁶

Where the Texas home insurance premium goes traces insurer costs. Underwriting a West Campus tower covers a different rental market, with leases priced by the bed.

Mortgage interest and property-tax deductions

The benefit depends on the additional deduction compared with renting. The workbook provides a simplified federal illustration for one household. The main table excludes these tax effects.¹⁷

For a new acquisition mortgage, current law generally limits deductible interest to debt of $750,000, or $375,000 for married couples filing individual returns. The 2027 standard deduction is $33,200 for married filing jointly and $16,600 for single filers. The 2027 state-and-local-tax deduction cap is $40,804 before its income phaseout, which starts at $510,050 of modified adjusted gross income for the main filing categories. The cap returns to $10,000 in 2030 under current law. A multi-decade model cannot preserve the temporary higher cap forever.¹⁷

The illustration assumes a married couple with $200,000 AGI, a constant 22% marginal rate, $6,000 of other state/local taxes, no charitable gifts and a qualifying residence. It compares the larger of the standard deduction or eligible itemized deductions in each alternative. The illustration assumes 2.5% future standard-deduction growth and calculates the incremental effect of deductions.

Mortgage-insurance deductibility resumes in tax years after 2025 under current law, but the income phaseout eliminates it for this $200,000-AGI example. A qualifying home sale may receive a $250,000 gain exclusion, or $500,000 for qualifying joint filers, subject to ownership/use and other statutory tests. The optional module uses the ordinary marginal-rate assumption for gains within one year, a stated 15% long-term rate thereafter, and possible net-investment-income tax. Additional eligible basis defaults to zero and must be supplied for a household example; tax savings enter at year-end. Larger gains, other income, basis adjustments and eligibility can change the tax result. The main comparison excludes these household-dependent effects.¹⁷

Are home prices expensive compared with rents historically?

Each metro can be compared with its own history from January 2015 through September 2026. The dataset has 7,049 matched metro-months, with a gap for San Jose in September 2022.¹⁸

The dollar multiple divides single-family ZHVI by twelve times single-family ZORI. It answers how many years of current annual rent equal the indexed home value, before expenses and financing. It does not identify an economically correct or “fair” price. A high multiple can reflect different expected growth, land constraints, property composition or amenities as well as a larger financial cost of ownership.

For a longer view, 14 metros have usable FHFA whole-metro house-price series and BLS rent histories back to 2000 Q1. At 2026 Q2, Dallas’s relative price/rent index is 144.6 and Houston’s is 147.8, with 2000 Q1 set to 100. The price index relative to the rent index is therefore roughly 45% and 48% above its 2000 relationship, respectively. The ratio tracks relative growth from a common index base.¹⁹

The longer series uses different source definitions. FHFA describes financed single-family values; BLS rent covers a broader occupied rental stock and continuing leases. Geographic boundaries can differ. Austin and San Antonio lack their own usable BLS rent series back to 2000. October 2025 CPI is missing following the lapse in appropriations, so that quarter’s rent average uses two observed months and is labeled accordingly; no missing month is interpolated.¹⁹

How many owners are locked into lower mortgage rates?

At 2026 Q2, 49.1% of outstanding mortgages in the FHFA count-weighted series had origination rates below 4%, and 65.6% had rates below 5%. About 78% were below 6%, materially below the current 7.11% new-loan benchmark.^{20, 2}

The below-4% share was 65.2% in 2022 Q1 and 52.1% in 2025 Q2. The incentive to keep a low-rate mortgage is shrinking but remains substantial. It can restrain both listings and purchases because many sellers would become buyers of another home. The price effect also depends on demand, supply and borrowing costs.

The series counts outstanding mortgages. The field is the contract rate at origination, which can differ from an adjustable-rate mortgage’s reset coupon. The latest five rounded bins total 100.1%. Summing the four sub-6% bins gives 77.6%, while subtracting the 6%-plus bin from 100 gives 77.5%. Rounding accounts for the 0.1-point difference.²⁰

How accurate were last year’s forecasts?

Completed quarters show that Fannie Mae and MBA underestimated the mortgage-rate rise by the third quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae’s October 2025 forecast had 6.0% for 2026 Q3, and MBA had 6.4%, against a realized Freddie Mac weekly-release average of 6.679%.²¹

The misses were +0.679 percentage point for Fannie Mae and +0.279 for MBA. Earlier quarters were closer: MBA’s 2026 Q2 call of 6.4% was near the realized 6.415%. The forecast errors motivate a range of starting rates in the sensitivity analysis.

The 2026 annual outcomes for the older NAR and Zillow forecasts are not complete as of November 12, and October sales at an annualized pace are not substituted for the realized calendar year. I could not locate a comparable numerical 2026 Goldman Sachs forecast in the freely accessible 2025 original article and archive, so that gap stays unknown. No forecast is scored against a different price index just to produce an error statistic.²¹

Can you refinance if rates fall—and what if prices fall?

A refinance can replace a mortgage rate after purchase, subject to a new loan’s costs and eligibility. It cannot change the price already paid for the house, so the two risks differ, and refinancing is neither free nor guaranteed.²²

Lower rates can reduce future interest without undoing earlier interest or transaction costs. Approval can depend on income, credit, appraisal and equity; falling house prices can make the equity test harder. Resetting to another 30-year term can also lower the payment while extending the repayment period. The base model assumes no refinance because its timing, price and eligibility are unknown.

A price decline does not generally change the scheduled principal owed. For an explicitly hypothetical $400,000 purchase with $80,000 down and a $320,000 mortgage, an immediate ten-percent price decline leaves $40,000 of equity before selling costs, ignoring amortization. The market might later recover, but refinancing does not reset the purchase basis. Conversely, someone who buys after the same decline begins with a smaller price and loan. The entry-price sensitivity in the workbook models buying after the decline.¹

What evidence would change the answer?

The strongest changes would be a different long-term price path, a materially lower mortgage quote, or a higher equivalent-home rent. Current tax and insurance bills could also overturn a close local result, especially where the source averages understate a new buyer’s costs.

The median falls from 20.7 to 8.0 years when uniform appreciation rises from 1% to 3%; that is why a 2027 price forecast alone offers limited information about a 20-year break-even horizon. A one-year forecast frames only the first year; later years remain a household planning assumption. Comparable rental observations, verified transaction costs, address-specific tax assessments and insurance quotes would improve the presets more than another general claim about a housing crash.

Next update: December 12, 2026. An earlier refresh follows a new Zillow monthly price/rent vintage, a material Freddie Mac rate change, or a source revision. The next FHFA quarterly HPI release is November 24, 2026; NAR’s December 16, 2026 forecast summit is another update event.^{19, 10}

Frequently asked questions

What was the median rent versus buy break-even?

The unweighted 50-metro median was 20.7 years at 20% down. The base scenario assumes a 7.11% mortgage, 1% annual home appreciation, 3% rent growth and a 5% after-tax investment return. Fourteen metros have no crossing within 30 years.^{1, 3}

Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Austin?

Renting leads throughout Austin’s 30-year base scenario. At a ten-year hold and 20% down, the two options tie at an entry price near $299,663 with the base rate, or at a 3.55% mortgage with the September 2026 price.^{1, 3}

What happens if mortgage rates fall by one percentage point?

Starting at 6.11% instead of 7.11% lowers the median break-even from 20.7 to 14.0 years. Ten metros cross within ten years under that scenario.^{1, 3}

Why compare single-family rent with single-family home values?

The two series cover a closer match in property type. In Austin, September 2026 single-family rent was 42.5% above the broader rent index. Individual homes can differ in size, location and condition.^{1, 3}

Can refinancing help if home prices fall?

A refinance can reduce future borrowing costs if the borrower qualifies and the savings exceed the costs. A lower appraisal can make qualifying harder. The base comparison assumes the original mortgage throughout.²²

The 50 metro results

The metro data include September 2026 single-family prices and rents, the three down-payment comparisons and the ten-year thresholds. All three down-payment cases use the 7.11% benchmark. The 5% and 10% cases add assumed PMI. A lender can quote different rates for those loans or for jumbo loans.²

1. Author calculations, November 12, 2026: Buy_or_Rent_50_Metros_Model.xlsx, data/metro_results_50.csv, data/scenario_results_150.csv, data/sensitivity_summary.csv, data/headline_monthly_curves.csv, data/crossing_audit_150.csv; formulas and assumptions in Methodology.md. All source inputs are full precision; displayed figures are rounded after calculation. ↩
2. Freddie Mac, PMMS, November 12, 2026 results and FAQ borrower profile; original weekly XLSX, Sheet1 date and 30-year columns. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
3. Zillow data and definitions; SF ZHVI CSV; SF ZORI CSV; all-property ZORI CSV. Latest column September 30, 2026; RegionIDs in data/metro_crosswalk.csv. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
4. Zillow, ZORI methodology, opening definition, weighting and dollar-denomination sections; retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
5. Census, 2025 ACS table-based summary files, tables B01003, B25090 and B25082; total estimate E001, with margins of error. Geography labels, summary level 310, component 00, Metro Area. Released October 29, 2026; retrieved November 12. The aggregate tax-to-value ratio comes from the survey. ↩
6. NAIC, Homeowners Report: Data for 2023, July 2026, printed pp.1–3 and 8 (definitions/limitations), Table4 state HO-3 all-coverage rows. Exact state PDF pages, premium totals and exposures appear in data/state_insurance_naic_2023.csv. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
7. Fannie Mae, October 12, 2026 forecast and September 11 forecast, p.1, mortgage-rate and HPI rows, horizon and rate-input footnotes. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
8. MBA, October 11, 2026 mortgage finance forecast, p.1, 2027 quarter columns and annual-column footnote; annual rate column denotes the Q4 average. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
9. Goldman Sachs, October 30, 2026 public housing outlook, paragraphs beginning “They project” and “Rates for 30-year mortgages.” Public institution-authored summary; underlying client report not accessed. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
10. data/forecasts_current_primary.csv and evidence/forecast_lockin_tax_notes.md, with 17 fact-level source records. Zillow forecast CSV, national RegionID102001, BaseDate2026-09-30, forecast column2027-09-30; November4 rate commentary. NAR November6 original outlook and December16 summit source are recorded in the source register. ↩
11. NAR, November 12, 2026, October existing-home sales release, National Snapshot; summary PDF. Access date November12; data period October2026. data/latest_macro_primary.csv. ↩
12. CFPB, Figure out how much you want to spend, monthly payment and closing-cost sections; retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
13. Freddie Mac, Understanding homebuying costs, closing-cost section; retrieved November 12, 2026. Freddie Mac’s general closing-cost range is 2%–5%. ↩
14. CFPB, When can I remove private mortgage insurance?, automatic 78% termination and midpoint provisions; retrieved November 12, 2026. PMI premium itself is an assumed 0.50% annual rate. ↩
15. TDI, Texas homeowners insurance market overview, annual-premium chart, 2025; official-linked county export, default filter Year2025, premium with wind and insured coverage. Retrieved November 12, 2026; workbook uses the source’s 2025 filter. ↩
16. data/texas_tax_example_jurisdictions_2026.csv, 25 rows, adopted rates, exemptions and exact URLs. Travis, Dallas, Harris, Bexar; Texas Tax Code §11.13, homestead provisions (accessed November 12, 2026). The calculation applies the listed rates and exemptions to a hypothetical home. ↩
17. IRS Revenue Procedure2026-35, p.13 standard deductions; 26USC §163, §164, §121, and §170; IRS net investment income tax. Statutory dates, caps, phaseouts and effective dates in data/tax_rules_primary.csv; accessed November 12, 2026. ↩
18. data/price_rent_history_2015_2026.csv and data/history_chart_points.csv; with source values and retrieval dates. Missing-pair and extraction checks appear in the audit files. ↩
19. FHFA all-transactions metro CSV and whole-MSA supplemental XLSX, 2026Q2 vintage released August 25, 2026; BLS CPI source, rent SEHA series and area crosswalk. Exact series IDs, bases and counts in data/fhfa_bls_relative_price_rent_14metros_since2000.csv. Next quarterly FHFA release November 24, 2026. BLS October2026 release, November 10, 2026, explains missing October2025 observation. All accessed November12. ↩
20. FHFA NMDB data page and national outstanding-mortgage CSV ZIP, 2013Q1–2026Q2, released September 30, 2026. Filters: GEOLEVEL National, GEOID USA, MARKET All Mortgages, PCT_INTRATE bins, VALUE1. Data dictionary pp. 5 and 13 defines population, rate and weighting. Original cells and calculations in accompanying CSVs; accessed November12. ↩
21. Fannie Mae October 13, 2025 housing forecast, p.1; MBA October 19, 2025 forecast, p.1; original weekly Freddie PMMS. data/forecasts_backtest_primary.csv records all 16 comparisons/statuses, including the NAR, Zillow and Goldman gaps. Observed quarters use arithmetic means of dated weekly releases. Access date November 12, 2026. ↩
22. CFPB, Should I refinance?, September 2020, pp.1–2; Freddie Mac, Planning to refinance, opening and term-extension sections, and Working with your lender, application steps 1–4. Retrieved November 12, 2026. Base model assumes no refinancing. ↩