When does the SpaceX lockup expire?

When can the remaining SpaceX shares be sold?

The prospectus names December 8, 2026 for the remaining 180-day block. The standard restriction runs through that day’s market close, so December 9 is the next regular session. Some shares held by signatories to the extended form can transfer on December 8. The public filings leave the holder-by-holder allocation open.¹

A lock-up is a contractual restriction on selling or transferring shares after an initial public offering, or IPO. Its expiration removes that restriction. Employee trading windows, vesting, registration and restrictions on company affiliates can still apply. An affiliate is a person who controls, is controlled by, or is under common control with the company.

The prospectus’s underwriting section gives the standard period through the December 8 close. The lockup form in Exhibit A of the underwriting agreement assigns 25% of an extended signatory’s original shares to the non-extended schedule and 75% to the extended schedule. Under clause (e) and footnote 9, extended signatories may transfer the remainder of the 25% portion beginning December 8. The filings give no aggregate size for that subset.²

The prospectus lists up to 797.6 million shares remaining if an optional price-triggered release did not occur, versus 328.4 million if it did. The optional condition required at least five of ten closing prices to reach $175.50, calculated as the $135 offer price plus 30%. Nasdaq prices show zero qualifying closes in the ten trading sessions through August 6. The ten-session window ending on the August 4 earnings announcement also had zero.³

I found no announced change or waiver that overrides this calendar as of November 12. The agreement permits written waivers, so a new announcement would change the answer.⁴

What is the full SpaceX lock-up schedule?

The contract gives ordinary holders, certain investors on the extended schedule and Musk different release dates. The table uses the prospectus’s approximate share ceilings, based on a March 31, 2026 share count with no subsequent option exercises or RSU or RSA settlements.¹

August 6 follows clause (a) of the lock-up form. The prospectus eligibility table words the first-earnings date differently, with two extra sessions. The calendar shows the contract-derived date.

The calendar rests on the final prospectus (pp. 259–260 and 272–273) and Exhibit A of the underwriting agreement. Earnings-linked dates stay open until the issuer announces results.¹

The 59.1 million-share affiliate catch-up appears consistent with 44% of the affiliate pool, including the optional 10% bonus that failed. The no-bonus cumulative percentage was 34%. Scaling the printed ceiling gives about 45.7 million shares from the rounded inputs. Applying 328.4 million ÷ 7% × 28% to the Q3 release gives 1,313.6 million, while the prospectus reports 1.3 billion. The differences nearly cancel when the rows are added. A precise free-float total needs holder-level eligibility and share counts.⁵

How big is the December release compared with the float?

The documented ceiling is 124.8% of the completed IPO block, 5.87% of the latest disclosed issued shares, and 6.98 times recent average daily volume. A precise November tradable float would need a complete, current record that counts each eligible share once.⁶

Float means shares available for public trading. It is different from all issued shares and from the shares sold in the IPO. The completed offering comprised 638,888,888 shares, including the underwriters’ additional-share option. The latest quarterly-report cover lists 13,581,063,709 Class A and B shares outstanding as of October 15, 2026. November free float would count only the shares available to trade at that point.⁶

The August Cursor acquisition disclosed 389,289,254 Class A shares for Cursor stock and 1,752,426 Class A shares for vested Cursor restricted stock units, before applicable tax withholding. Resulting issued shares enter later outstanding-share counts; the gross pre-withholding amounts are not automatically the net shares issued or freely tradable. Adding them again to the later total would double count. A registration statement does not cancel a contractual lock-up. The August resale registration covers 136,949,657 shares, remains subject to applicable restrictions, and may overlap the older pool.⁷

Nasdaq’s 20 completed sessions from October 15 through November 11 total 2,284,524,840 shares of reported volume, or 114,226,242 shares per session. Dividing the December ceiling by that average gives 6.98. This measures inventory against turnover; it does not predict seven days of selling. The same share can trade repeatedly, and only some newly eligible holders may choose to sell.⁸

What if only some eligible holders sell?

The low, base and high cases assume three sale fractions and compare the resulting quantities with market volume.⁹

All cases use the same 797.6 million-share ceiling, 114.226 million-share observed daily volume, and ten-session selling period. Daily participation is assumed shares sold divided by the number of sessions and the assumed daily market volume.⁹

The sensitivity below varies volume to 75%, 100% and 125% of the observed average. Every entry shows the hypothetical share of trading volume.

For the base case, 119.64 million shares sold over ten sessions would equal 10.47% of observed average daily turnover. Slower volume raises that proportion; a longer selling horizon lowers it.⁹

Can SpaceX employees sell their stock already?

Some employees and insiders already had released shares before December. Eligibility depends on the holder’s agreement, the tranche and any remaining trading restrictions.¹

Gwynne Shotwell’s September 24 Form 4 reports 342,170 shares sold on September 22, 2026, across five price lots. Antonio Gracias’s amended Form 4 records a 42,790,223-share pro rata distribution on September 11 without consideration. The amended filing replaces the original record for that distribution.¹⁰

As of June 30, 2026, reported blocks included 551,189,500 Class A shares for the Alphabet/Google ownership chain, 503,414,530 for Gracias/Valor, and 427,306,025 for the Founders Fund reporting group. Parent, subsidiary, fund and general-partner rows can describe the same shares; summing them would manufacture supply.¹¹

Class A carries one vote per share and Class B ten votes. Converting B into A changes voting rights and the listed-class count without creating another economic share. The prospectus’s May 1 ownership snapshot disclosed 237,530 Musk Class A shares and 2,381,000 Nosek Class A shares pledged as collateral.¹²

When can Elon Musk sell SpaceX shares?

Musk’s agreement imposes a 366-day restriction without an automatic early release. The stated June 12, 2027 endpoint falls on a Saturday. The next ordinary market session is Monday, June 14, 2027, subject to any later waiver or other restriction.¹³

The prospectus’s rounded 6.4 billion-share ceiling includes options. His June 30 Schedule 13G reports 6,418,547,515 beneficial shares, including 350 million option shares. Subtracting those options gives 6,068,547,515 issued shares, which still include 1,302,072,285 restricted performance Class B shares. Awards can remain subject to vesting or other restrictions after the IPO lockup expires.¹³

Does a lock-up expiration make a stock fall?

The six fully priced, contract-reviewed main events here have a release-day median return 4.42 percentage points below the Nasdaq Composite, with outcomes from -16.58 to +13.87 percentage points. The six companies were selected, so the figures describe how those shares traded around release dates.¹⁴

An excess return here is the stock’s cumulative percentage price change minus the index’s percentage price change over the same dates. One percentage point is the difference between two percentage returns. Dividends are excluded from both series. The four return windows are: the close 11 sessions before to the close one session before; the previous close to the release-day close; and the release-day close to ten or 30 sessions later. The two after-release windows overlap.¹⁵

Alibaba: the contractual September 19, 2015 main release falls on a Saturday, making September 21 the first market session. Its required daily stock prices were not recovered from a qualifying public primary source, so its return is missing rather than estimated.¹⁷

Four of the six stocks underperformed the index on the main release day. All six underperformed in the preceding ten-session window, while the subsequent windows were mixed. Earnings announcements, company news, valuation, market conditions and investor expectations also move these returns.¹⁴

The largest examples also show why calendar construction matters:

Facebook. Releases occurred in several stages. Its employee availability date of October 29, 2012 became an October 31 trading event because Hurricane Sandy closed the exchanges. The November 14 row of Facebook’s Q3 filing table describes about 804 million outstanding or net-settled shares, and reports options in a different line. It excludes Zuckerberg based on his stated intention to keep his shares.¹⁶

Alibaba. The prospectus shows stages in December 2014, March 2015 and September 2015. Original share counts precede the completed additional-share option and later awards. Exact release-day tradable supply would require a later share and eligibility count.¹⁷

Uber. The reviewed main date is November 6, 2019. Its original non-IPO share pool describes capitalization at the offering.¹⁸

Snowflake. The first confirmed releases were December 15, 2020 and January 7, 2021, the latter about 37.9 million shares after a price trigger. Its broad release was March 5, following earnings, while a private-placement and secondary block stayed restricted under its own agreement.¹⁹

Airbnb. The initial employee sale window was temporary, with unsold shares relocked. Its March 1, 2021 window covered up to approximately 33.5 million securities. The broad release followed on May 17. Summing the temporary window and later releases as permanently free shares would overstate supply.²⁰

Rivian. The contractual date was Sunday, May 8, 2022, making May 9 the market event. Its disclosed lock-up coverage percentages include awards, so multiplying them by common shares outstanding would not produce a valid issued-share release count.²¹

Arm. March 12, 2024 is the main holder-release date. The employee-award provision gives a different date. Its IPO also sold SoftBank’s shares, so offering proceeds and money raised by the operating company are different measures.²²

The data include 13 measured stages, but counting every stage weights repeat issuers more heavily and creates overlapping windows. That wider set has a −3.57-percentage-point release-day median.¹⁴

How many IPOs could be compared?

The six-event comparison uses confirmed dates and price windows. The candidate register identifies cases for a larger study of US IPOs above $1 billion.²³

A scan of 203 monthly Nasdaq calendar windows, January 2010 through November 2026, yielded 4,870 priced rows, 163 calendar amounts above $1 billion and 51 candidates from $850 million through $1 billion for possible completed-option crossovers. The 214-candidate register classifies funds, SPACs, direct listings and relistings. The calendar’s coverage and reported amounts need offering-by-offering verification.²³

Threshold verification matters: LendingClub’s 66.7 million shares × $15 = $1.0005 billion qualifies when completed option purchases are included. An exactly $1 billion offering does not satisfy “more than $1 billion.” The broad mechanical price panel supplies complete endpoints for 86 candidates, but their contract dates, historical ticker identities and corporate-action treatment remain unverified.²³

Why is SpaceX stock down from its peak?

The stock is 30.75% below its highest closing price, but the documents do not identify one cause. The $139.75 close on November 11 remained 3.52% above the $135 offer price.²⁴

The $225.64 price on June 16 was an intraday high. Nasdaq records a $201.80 close that day, the highest close in the retrieved listing-to-November series. October 30’s $134.72 close is confirmed as the first below the offer price since August. Mixing an intraday peak with closing prices exaggerates a close-to-close drawdown.²⁴

SpaceX priced on June 11, 2026 and began Nasdaq trading as SPCX on June 12. The base 555,555,555 shares at $135 produced about $75 billion gross. The completed offering, including the additional shares, totaled $86.25 billion gross. Deducting $575 million of underwriting commissions and offering costs gives about $85.675 billion of net proceeds. The prospectus says the additional-share option carries no underwriting commission. These are different measures; the cash-flow statement’s net figure should not be called the gross amount raised.²⁵

What does the $135 IPO price value today?

Using the latest disclosed shares and balances, $135 per share implies $1.783 trillion of enterprise value, or 55.63 times trailing revenue. At the November 11 close of $139.75, the same calculation gives $1.847 trillion and 57.64 times revenue.²⁷

Enterprise value, or EV, is equity market value plus the debt-like claims counted here, less the cash and securities deducted here. This model includes debt principal and finance leases, excludes operating leases, and deducts unrestricted cash and short-term marketable securities. It values both classes at the quoted Class A price and applies no adjustment for voting control or vesting. The share count covers issued shares and excludes unexercised options.

Third-quarter cash-flow figures subtract the first half from the nine-month totals. Cash PPE purchases measure cash paid for property, plant and equipment.²⁶

Trailing revenue through September 2026 is $18.674 billion for 2025 + $27.083 billion for the first nine months of 2026 − $13.714 billion for the comparable 2025 period = $32.043 billion. The same period bridge yields a trailing operating loss of $668 million. Nine-month operating cash flow was $13.097 billion, against $48.069 billion of cash PPE purchases.²⁶

Value and revenue are in USD billions. Issued A+B shares are in billions of shares. The offer column uses the prospectus’s March 31 pro forma capitalization, adjusted for the completed full option, and March trailing revenue. The comparison uses the pro forma balance sheet at March 31. The current columns combine October 15 shares, September 30 balances and the stated price.²⁷

The current balance adjustment is $38.989 billion of debt principal and finance leases, less $89.855 billion of cash and short-term marketable securities. The baseline excludes $297 million of long-term government and corporate debt securities reported in Other assets. Apollo’s financing commitment came after September 30 and depends on conditions for funding.²⁷

These multiples describe the price paid relative to reported revenue. The SpaceX and Starlink valuation estimates the value of the connectivity and launch businesses.

Is SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500?

SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 before the market opened on July 7, 2026. I found no S&P 500 entry announcement as of November 12, and the official SPY holdings file dated November 11 lists no SpaceX holding. That file is not the S&P constituent roster itself.²⁸

Invesco reports a September Nasdaq-100 weight change from 1.28% to 2.82%. The 1.54-percentage-point increase implies $1.54 billion of additional target holdings per $100 billion of fully replicating assets, before flows and existing positions. Applying that change to QQQ’s later September 30 assets of $500.31 billion gives $7.705 billion, an illustration rather than a measurement of trading by QQQ or all index funds.²⁹

Estimating global purchases would require contemporaneous physically replicating assets, holdings, flows and executions. Nasdaq’s float rule uses eligible listed shares as its starting point.³⁰

S&P’s June 4, 2026 consultation result kept its eligibility rules for mega-cap IPOs. The current methodology ordinarily requires 12 months of IPO trading, putting the ordinary seasoning anniversary at June 12, 2027. Profitability, investability and committee selection also matter. No announced S&P entry supports a present estimate of compulsory buying.³¹

What would change this answer?

An issuer or underwriter clarification of the December first-sale session and the number of shares in each contractual variant would change the answer first. A waiver, amended agreement or updated eligible-share ledger would change the calendar or count directly.

Later Forms 4 and other ownership disclosures can show which transactions holders report after the release. New earnings announcements would date the floating 2027 releases. New share counts, financing disclosures and trading volume would update the valuation and capacity calculations. A complete primary-source historical sample could change the descriptive medians.

Refresh: December 7, 2026, before the release window; after the December 8 and December 9 sessions; immediately after any waiver or amended agreement; and when each relevant 2027 earnings date is announced.

Frequently asked questions

When does the SpaceX lockup expire?

The next major release spans December 8–9, 2026. The standard lockup ends after the December 8 close. Some holders on the extended schedule can transfer the remainder of their non-extended portion starting December 8.

How many SpaceX shares unlock in December?

The prospectus puts the December ceiling at 797.6 million shares after the August price condition failed. That figure measures how many shares may become eligible for sale. Sales will depend on what holders do.

Can SpaceX employees sell their stock before December?

Some employees already held released shares. The agreement, the employee’s release schedule and any remaining trading or vesting restrictions determine what they can sell.

When does Elon Musk’s SpaceX lockup end?

The agreement names Saturday, June 12, 2027. Monday, June 14 is the next ordinary trading session. Vesting and other restrictions can still apply to options and awards.

Do IPO lockup expirations always make prices fall?

Four of six stocks in this comparison lagged the Nasdaq Composite on release day and two outperformed. Relative returns ranged from 16.58 percentage points below the index to 13.87 points above it.

1. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 pp. 259–260 and 272–273; SpaceX underwriting agreement and lock-up form Exhibit A; SpaceX Q2 results Form 8-K and SpaceX Q3 results Form 8-K. Calendar receipt: Calendar Inputs; ratios: Unlock Calc, rows 46–62. ↩
2. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 pp. 272–273, ordinary-period paragraph and clause (e). SpaceX underwriting agreement and lockup form, Exhibit A, pp. A-2–A-3, clause (e) on p. A-8 and footnote 9 on p. A-9. ↩
3. SpaceX final IPO prospectus p. 273, clause (a), and Nasdaq SPCX daily prices and volume. Unlock Calc!B13:B15; exact alternative-window observations in editorial/independent_trigger_window_check.csv. ↩
4. SpaceX SEC submissions inventory and data/filing_inventory.csv; SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SpaceX Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and SpaceX investor relations earnings announcements. The filing review found no announced waiver. ↩
5. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 pp. 259–260. Unlock Calc!B23:B24. Both adjusted counts are explicitly analytical inferences from rounded ceilings. ↩
6. SpaceX IPO closing Form 8-K Item 8.01; SpaceX Q3 2026 Form 10-Q cover; Unlock Calc!B15:B20. ↩
7. SpaceX Cursor acquisition Form 8-K Item 2.01; SpaceX Form S-8 resale prospectus reoffer cover and lock-up limitations; SpaceX Cursor Form S-8. Inputs and Unlock Calc!B27. ↩
8. Nasdaq SPCX daily prices and volume; Prices!F92:F111 and Unlock Calc!B11:B12. The source CSV preserves all retrieved daily prices and volumes. ↩
9. Analyst-defined assumptions, dated November 12, 2026. Inputs LOW_SELL/BASE_SELL/HIGH_SELL/HORIZON and volume multipliers; Unlock Calc!A30:E42. These are uncalibrated mechanical scenarios. ↩
10. Shotwell Form 4 transaction tables and footnotes; Gracias amended Form 4 amended Table I and footnotes. Holder Inputs and data/insider_transactions_raw.csv. ↩
11. Alphabet/Google Schedule 13G; Gracias/Valor Schedule 13G; Founders Fund Schedule 13G. Beneficial ownership is not an exact current released-share ledger. ↩
12. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 capital-stock description and pp. 248–250 principal-shareholder footnotes. May 1 snapshot. ↩
13. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 pp. 260 and 272; Musk Schedule 13G Item 4 and footnotes. Holder Inputs!B6:B8; Unlock Calc!B25. ↩
14. Events Calc; data/historical_summary_stats.csv; data/historical_event_returns.csv. Company sources and price endpoints are in data/historical_sources.csv and data/historical_price_endpoints.csv. The workbook also reports the 13-stage comparison. ↩
15. Nasdaq, Inc., NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQCOM, supplied through FRED; daily source. Issuer-hosted Meta prices and Nasdaq stock series are identified by URL in the historical source ledger. The original Nasdaq quote API index feed was rejected after discrepancies were documented in data/index_data_discrepancies.csv. ↩
16. Facebook Q3 2012 Form 10-Q pp. 49–50; Nasdaq Hurricane Sandy market closure notice ETA2012-45. The event count is not all legally unlocked supply. ↩
17. Alibaba final IPO prospectus pp. 297–302; Alibaba FY2015 Form 20-F IPO and lock-up discussion. Price lookup attempts and remaining gaps are in the historical annex and CSV. ↩
18. Uber final IPO prospectus lock-up provisions; Uber Q3 2019 Form 10-Q pp. 97–98. Exact release-day eligible shares and float not recovered. ↩
19. Snowflake December 29, 2020 Form 8-K Item 8.01; Snowflake March 3, 2021 earnings release Form 8-K; Snowflake FY2021 Form 10-K p. 35. The data leave the exact date of the later contractual block open. ↩
20. Airbnb final IPO prospectus lock-up provisions; Airbnb FY2020 Form 10-K; Airbnb May 13, 2021 earnings Form 8-K. Quantity includes relevant exercisable or convertible securities. ↩
21. Rivian final IPO prospectus p. 203 and underwriting provisions; Rivian Q1 2022 Form 10-Q. Common shares and awards are not interchangeable. ↩
22. Arm final IPO prospectus pp. 206–207 and 219–222; Arm FY2024 Form 20-F. Original SoftBank block is not a current release-day float measurement. ↩
23. Nasdaq monthly IPO-calendar and overview APIs, with all URLs in data/large_ipo_candidate_register_reviewed.csv. The source-data download includes the eligibility thresholds and universe source ledger. LendingClub: LendingClub FY2014 Form 10-K Item 5 and Note 11, Stockholders’ Equity, printed p. 80. Provisional price panel is explicitly unverified and kept under data/provisional/. ↩
24. Nasdaq SPCX daily prices and volume; Unlock Calc!B6:B10. The Nasdaq series supplies daily closing and intraday high prices. ↩
25. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 cover; SpaceX IPO closing Form 8-K Item 8.01; SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q equity financing and cash-flow statement. Finance Calc!B38:B41; USD 120 difference from the rounded filed net total is within its million-dollar reporting precision. ↩
26. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 p. 23; SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SpaceX Q3 2026 Form 10-Q statements of operations and cash flows. Standard XBRL tags in data/source_inputs.csv; Finance Calc!B6:F23. Common-control and acquisition-accounting footnotes govern comparability. ↩
27. SpaceX final IPO prospectus, dated June 11, 2026 pp. 70–71 and financial Note 9; SpaceX Q3 2026 Form 10-Q cover, p. 4 and Note 9 p. 17; Nasdaq SPCX daily prices and volume; Apollo GPU financing commitment Form 8-K. Finance Calc!B27:D34. ↩
28. Nasdaq SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion announcement; State Street SPY daily holdings. No S&P entry notice found in this review. ↩
29. Invesco QQQ monthly review, October 26 review. Finance Calc!B45:B47. Invesco’s September effective-date wording conflicts with the regular Nasdaq calendar; the precise September date is not used as a verified fact here. ↩
30. Nasdaq-100 Index Methodology weighting section. The lesser of listed-class shares and three times listed-class free float precedes other weighting rules. ↩
31. S&P U.S. Indices Methodology pp. 9–10, November 2026 methodology; S&P mega-cap consultation result. Ordinary IPO seasoning, profitability and investability requirements do not promise inclusion. ↩