HYPERLIQUID / RESEARCH MODEL / 14 OCT 2026
Price the assumptions.
Growth is only part of the argument. Test what reaches HYPE, when it arrives, and how many claims share it.
Central case: $28.63bn of aggregate value. 75.7% depends on flows after the first five driver-based years.
The central stream supports an $80 price at a 10.04% required return, not the model's 18% hurdle.
Follow the economic stream.
Annual modeled receipts, USD billions. These are assumptions, not reported results.
Inspect every annual cash flow
| Period end | Phase | Flow ($bn) | PV ($bn) |
|---|
One change at a time.
Fixed central case, 18% return, 3% terminal growth and 955.31m claims. These reference tests do not accumulate your edits above.
| Independent change | Value / HYPE | Change |
|---|
Inspect the five-year product forecast
Before the additional policy diversion. Trading rates are already net to HYPE; no additional 99% allocation is applied.
| Driver year | Crypto | Other perps | Spot | Reserves | Other | Outcomes |
|---|
Reverse the reference price.
This separate benchmark solves aggregate growth from the original $71.65m of 30-day parent holder receipts, annualized once. It uses your return, terminal-growth, supply and reference-price inputs, but not your product shocks, redirection, delay or maturity override. It always uses five growth years plus a five-year fade.
Method, limits and reproducible files
The economic claim is policy-dependent. This is not audited-company free cash flow, equity ownership, a dividend guarantee or a trading target. Customer collateral is not added as cash owned by HYPE holders. No future buyback receives a second benefit through a reduced denominator.
With the standard fade, year-six growth equals 80% of the scenario's original final-year growth plus 20% of terminal growth; subsequent weights fade to terminal growth in year ten. Operating shocks keep that original anchor fixed. Immediate maturity instead starts a stable-growth perpetuity after year five. A delay postpones the entire modeled stream and terminal value; it is not a realistic no-revenue business forecast.
The implied return is the discount rate that reconciles the selected economic stream to the reference price. It is not an estimate of your realized token return. Share links encode assumptions in the URL fragment; no model input is sent to a server.
Original assumptions · Original Python model · Stress-test Python · Frozen stress results · Original sensitivity results · Source ledger