{
  "asOf": "2026-10-14",
  "units": "USD billions for flows and balances; USD trillions for turnover; basis points for retained trading rates; millions for token supply.",
  "measurementBoundary": "Dashboard fields retrieved on 2026-10-14. Rolling windows are provider-defined, not a synchronized on-chain accounting close. Price is an illustrative rounded reference, not an executable quote.",
  "discountRate": 0.18,
  "terminalGrowth": 0.03,
  "supplyM": 955.31,
  "referencePrice": 80,
  "reserveShare": 0.90,
  "explicitYears": 5,
  "fadeYears": 5,
  "observed": {
    "perpVolume30dB": 208.687,
    "perpProductFees30dM": 85.39,
    "perpProductHolderReceipts30dM": 69.72,
    "allProductHolderReceipts30dM": 71.65,
    "circulatingSupplyM": 222.45,
    "totalSupplyM": 955.31,
    "originalSupplyCapM": 1000,
    "q3ParentGrossM": 224.23,
    "q3ParentCostM": 45.42,
    "q3ParentReportedProfitM": 173.97,
    "q3ReserveReceiptsM": 22.16
  },
  "observationWarnings": [
    "The perpetuals adapter includes AQAv2 reserve yield in fees, revenue and holder revenue. Holder receipts divided by turnover are a mixed-product ratio, not a pure trading take rate.",
    "Do not add a reserve-yield estimate to the observed headline receipts. Forecast trading and reserve streams are rebuilt independently.",
    "The displayed quarterly parent income statement does not reconcile: 224.23 - 45.42 - 173.97 = 4.84 million. No invented expense plug is used.",
    "955.31 million is the provider's total-supply convention, not a forecast of circulating supply in 2031. Full economic dilution is a conservative allocation assumption.",
    "HIP-4 documentation and the data adapter disagree on the current protocol fee status. Base and bear grant HIP-4 no revenue; bull values an explicitly hypothetical future stream."
  ],
  "cases": {
    "bear": {
      "label": "Erosion",
      "cryptoVolumeT": [2, 2.2, 2.4, 2.5, 2.5],
      "cryptoNetBps": [3, 2.8, 2.6, 2.4, 2.2],
      "noncryptoVolumeT": [0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1, 1.2],
      "noncryptoNetBps": [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35],
      "spotVolumeT": [0.06, 0.07, 0.08, 0.09, 0.1],
      "spotNetBps": [3, 3, 3, 3, 3],
      "eligibleStablecoinBalanceB": [4, 4, 4, 4, 4],
      "costAdjustedReserveYield": [0.025, 0.022, 0.02, 0.018, 0.018],
      "otherNetFeesB": [0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
      "outcomeNetFeesB": [0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
      "cryptoMarket2031T": 125,
      "onchainShare2031": 0.10,
      "hyperliquidShare2031": 0.20
    },
    "base": {
      "label": "Strong execution",
      "cryptoVolumeT": [2.8, 4.2, 6, 8.5, 12],
      "cryptoNetBps": [3.2, 3, 2.8, 2.65, 2.5],
      "noncryptoVolumeT": [1, 2, 3.5, 5.5, 8],
      "noncryptoNetBps": [0.5, 0.55, 0.6, 0.65, 0.7],
      "spotVolumeT": [0.09, 0.15, 0.24, 0.38, 0.6],
      "spotNetBps": [3.5, 3.4, 3.3, 3.15, 3],
      "eligibleStablecoinBalanceB": [6, 8, 11, 15, 20],
      "costAdjustedReserveYield": [0.03, 0.028, 0.026, 0.025, 0.025],
      "otherNetFeesB": [0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.035, 0.05],
      "outcomeNetFeesB": [0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
      "cryptoMarket2031T": 200,
      "onchainShare2031": 0.20,
      "hyperliquidShare2031": 0.30
    },
    "bull": {
      "label": "Dominant infrastructure",
      "cryptoVolumeT": [4, 7, 12, 19, 28],
      "cryptoNetBps": [3.4, 3.35, 3.3, 3.25, 3.2],
      "noncryptoVolumeT": [2, 5, 10, 18, 30],
      "noncryptoNetBps": [0.6, 0.75, 0.9, 1, 1.2],
      "spotVolumeT": [0.15, 0.3, 0.6, 1.1, 1.8],
      "spotNetBps": [3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5],
      "eligibleStablecoinBalanceB": [8, 13, 22, 35, 50],
      "costAdjustedReserveYield": [0.032, 0.032, 0.032, 0.032, 0.032],
      "otherNetFeesB": [0.01, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15],
      "outcomeNetFeesB": [0, 0.015, 0.05, 0.12, 0.25],
      "cryptoMarket2031T": 350,
      "onchainShare2031": 0.32,
      "hyperliquidShare2031": 0.25
    }
  }
}