Research companion / evidence cutoff 14 October 2026
Change the assumptions.
See what the price requires.
A model of the business Anduril would have to become. Revenue growth is only one input. Margins, capital intensity and the time spent waiting for cash matter too.
Every operating path here is an author scenario, not company guidance. The $61B reference is the completed May financing; $100B was reported in July discussions. Current cash balances and share-class terms are not disclosed in the reviewed record.
- Consolidated enterprise value
- — Present value of economic operating cash flow
- Equity after entered outside claims
- — EV + assumed net cash − claim value
- Annual revenue in 2036
- — Operating margin: —
- Cash-timing proxy gap
- — After assumed available liquidity; not a treasury forecast
The path to payback
Cumulative free cash flow before financing, $B. *2026 is only the assumed remaining-year stub.
Peak economic deficit—
Peak cash-timing proxy deficit—
First positive annual economic FCF: —. Hypothetical noncash compensation is — of revenue; available liquidity is —.
Reverse the financing price
Solve the entire sales path required to support the reference equity prices, after the entered — of outside claims.
Inspect the annual operating model
Scroll the table horizontally. Figures in $B except margins. The final five years include explicit additional reinvestment as returns on new capital mature. No cash from financing is included.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT margin | EBIT | Tax | Total capex | D&A | Δ working capital | Maturity investment | Economic FCF | Cash-timing proxy |
|---|
What this model does not know
It does not observe Anduril’s funded backlog, segment revenue, compensation mix, current liquidity or share-class preferences. An outside claim must be entered at its fair value, not as a percentage of the whole parent company. The projected shipyard ownership terms are not treated as a completed parent-level transaction.
The cash-timing overlay is deliberately separate from valuation. Paying an employee in shares can conserve cash without making that employee free. The model retains the economic compensation cost while allowing an illustrative noncash addback for timing; it does not calculate actual share dilution, tax deductions or financing terms.
Extra collection days create additional receivables throughout the forecast and beyond 2041. Terminal growth remains funded rather than silently assuming the added receivables disappear. Stress results are deterministic comparisons, not likelihoods or confidence intervals.
Python is the audit reference. This browser model is tested against the original DCF and the operating-stress overlay. Download base assumptions and outputs, stress outputs, or the published stress comparison. Claim-specific external sources are in the article source ledger.