"""Operating stress tests for the Anduril expectations model (2026-10-14). The original model is preserved. These overlays isolate operating assumptions, not statistical confidence or measured cash needs. Run: python3 stress.py [dir] Only standard-library imports. Every default ties to model.value(). """ from __future__ import annotations from pathlib import Path import csv import json import math import sys from model import value as original_value, CASES, REVENUE_2026, STUB, TAX def value(case='Base', discount=.12, terminal_growth=.03, scale=1., margin_shift=0., margin_delay=0, extra_collection_days=0., arsenal2_multiplier=1., net_cash=3., minority_value=0., available_cash=3., noncash_comp_ratio=0.): """All money in nominal USD billions. margin_shift phases linearly through 2036, then persists. margin_delay postpones the margin ramp only: revenue, ordinary investment and A2 timing remain unchanged; the mature margin is reached no later than 2038. Additional receivables equal sales * days / 365, start from zero in 2027, and persist beyond 2041. Their terminal investment is added to (not hidden inside) the original ROIC-funded reinvestment, holding other efficiency fixed. A2 overrun changes spending, not depreciation or tax shields: cost-risk stress, not a new fixed-asset ledger. The hypothetical noncash compensation addback affects ONLY the cash-timing proxy; economic FCF and valuation are unchanged. """ inputs=[discount,terminal_growth,scale,margin_shift,extra_collection_days, arsenal2_multiplier,net_cash,minority_value,available_cash,noncash_comp_ratio] if not all(isinstance(x,(int,float)) and math.isfinite(x) for x in inputs): raise ValueError('Inputs must be finite numbers') if not isinstance(margin_delay,int) or not 0 <= margin_delay <= 2: raise ValueError('Margin delay must be 0, 1 or 2 years') if not 0 <= extra_collection_days <= 120 or not 0 <= noncash_comp_ratio <= .15: raise ValueError('Collection days or noncash compensation outside supported range') if arsenal2_multiplier < 0 or abs(margin_shift) > .10: raise ValueError('Invalid cost multiplier or margin change') base=original_value(case,discount,terminal_growth,net_cash,minority_value,scale,available_cash) c=CASES[case] if c['margins'][-1]+margin_shift <= 0: raise ValueError('Terminal EBIT margin must remain positive') pv_stub=base['stub_fcf']/(1+discount)**STUB pv=pv_stub economic_cumulative=base['stub_fcf'] timing_cumulative=base['stub_fcf']+REVENUE_2026*STUB*noncash_comp_ratio economic_min=min(0.,economic_cumulative) timing_min=min(0.,timing_cumulative) previous_extra_receivables=0. rows=[] for i, old in enumerate(base['rows']): row=dict(old) progress=min((i+1)/10,1.) margin=c['margins'][min(9,max(0,i-margin_delay))]+margin_shift*progress ebit=row['revenue']*margin cash_tax=max(0.,ebit)*TAX nopat=ebit-cash_tax a2=row['arsenal2_capex']*arsenal2_multiplier raw=row['ordinary_capex']+a2-row['depreciation']+row['change_nwc'] fade=(i-9)/5*(nopat*row['growth']/c['roic']-raw) if i>=10 else 0. extra_ar=row['revenue']*extra_collection_days/365 delta_ar=extra_ar-previous_extra_receivables reinvestment=raw+fade+delta_ar fcf=nopat-reinvestment pv_fcf=fcf/(1+discount)**row['discount_years'] noncash_addback=row['revenue']*noncash_comp_ratio economic_cumulative+=fcf timing_cumulative+=fcf+noncash_addback economic_min=min(economic_min,economic_cumulative) timing_min=min(timing_min,timing_cumulative) row.update(ebit_margin=margin,ebit=ebit,cash_tax=cash_tax,nopat=nopat, arsenal2_capex=a2,fade_reinvestment=fade,extra_receivables=extra_ar, change_extra_receivables=delta_ar,total_reinvestment=reinvestment, fcf=fcf,pv_fcf=pv_fcf,cumulative_fcf=economic_cumulative, hypothetical_noncash_addback=noncash_addback, cash_timing_proxy=fcf+noncash_addback,cumulative_cash_timing_proxy=timing_cumulative) rows.append(row) pv+=pv_fcf previous_extra_receivables=extra_ar terminal_nopat=rows[-1]['revenue']*(1+terminal_growth)*(c['margins'][-1]+margin_shift)*(1-TAX) terminal_extra_ar_investment=rows[-1]['revenue']*terminal_growth*extra_collection_days/365 terminal_fcf=terminal_nopat*(1-terminal_growth/c['roic'])-terminal_extra_ar_investment pv_terminal=terminal_fcf/(discount-terminal_growth)/(1+discount)**rows[-1]['discount_years'] ev=pv+pv_terminal return dict(enterprise_value=ev,gross_equity_value=ev+net_cash, equity_after_assumed_nci=ev+net_cash-minority_value,pv_explicit=pv, pv_terminal=pv_terminal,terminal_fcf=terminal_fcf,terminal_extra_ar_investment=terminal_extra_ar_investment, revenue_2036=rows[9]['revenue'],ebit_margin_2036=rows[9]['ebit_margin'], peak_economic_fcf_deficit=-economic_min, economic_deficit_less_assumed_liquidity=max(0.,-economic_min-available_cash), peak_cash_timing_proxy_deficit=-timing_min, cash_timing_proxy_gap=max(0.,-timing_min-available_cash), first_positive_economic_fcf=next((r['year'] for r in rows if r['fcf']>0),None), first_positive_cash_timing_proxy=next((r['year'] for r in rows if r['cash_timing_proxy']>0),None), stub_fcf=base['stub_fcf'],rows=rows) def reverse(target, **kwargs): """Solve the bridge AFTER the explicitly assumed outside claim. Not per-share.""" if not isinstance(target,(int,float)) or not math.isfinite(target) or target <= 0: raise ValueError('Positive finite target required') if 'scale' in kwargs: raise ValueError('The solver owns the revenue scale') lo,hi=.01,10. if not value(scale=lo,**kwargs)['equity_after_assumed_nci'] < target < value(scale=hi,**kwargs)['equity_after_assumed_nci']: raise ValueError('Target outside supported bracket') for _ in range(80): mid=(lo+hi)/2 if value(scale=mid,**kwargs)['equity_after_assumed_nci'] < target: lo=mid else: hi=mid result=value(scale=(lo+hi)/2,**kwargs) return dict(target=target,scale=(lo+hi)/2,revenue_2036=result['revenue_2036'], revenue_cagr=(result['revenue_2036']/REVENUE_2026)**.1-1, residual=result['equity_after_assumed_nci']-target) def software_share(ebit_margin, hardware_contribution=.15, software_contribution=.50, corporate_cost=.05): if software_contribution <= hardware_contribution: raise ValueError('Software contribution must exceed hardware contribution') share=(ebit_margin+corporate_cost-hardware_contribution)/(software_contribution-hardware_contribution) if not 0 <= share <= 1: raise ValueError('Requested margin is infeasible at these contributions') return share def snapshot(): base=value() definitions=[ ('Base',{}), ('Margin ramp two years later',dict(margin_delay=2)), ('2036 EBIT margin 18%, phased',dict(margin_shift=-.04)), ('Collections 30 days slower',dict(extra_collection_days=30)), ('Arsenal-2 private spending +50%',dict(arsenal2_multiplier=1.5)), ('Combined operating stress',dict(margin_delay=2,margin_shift=-.04,extra_collection_days=30,arsenal2_multiplier=1.5)), ] stress=[] for name,kwargs in definitions: result=value(**kwargs) stress.append(dict(name=name,parameters=kwargs,**{k:v for k,v in result.items() if k!='rows'}, change_enterprise_value=result['enterprise_value']-base['enterprise_value'])) mix=[] for label,revenue in [('Base',base['revenue_2036']),('$61B bridge',reverse(61)['revenue_2036']),('$100B bridge',reverse(100)['revenue_2036'])]: for hardware in [.15,.20]: share=software_share(.22,hardware) mix.append(dict(reference=label,total_revenue=revenue,hardware_contribution=hardware, software_contribution=.50,corporate_cost=.05,required_software_share=share, required_software_revenue=revenue*share,hardware_revenue=revenue*(1-share))) return dict(as_of='2026-10-14',units='USD billions, nominal', warning='Deterministic author sensitivities, not probabilities, disclosed segment data or a liquidity forecast.', stress=stress,software_scale=mix, cash_timing=[dict(noncash_comp_ratio=p,**{k:v for k,v in value(noncash_comp_ratio=p).items() if k not in ['rows']}) for p in [0.,.02,.04]], net_cash_nci=[dict(net_cash=c,minority_value=n,equity=base['enterprise_value']+c-n) for c in [0.,3.,5.] for n in [0.,1.,3.]], reverse=[dict(margin=m,**reverse(price,margin_shift=m-.22)) for price in [61.,100.] for m in [.18,.22,.26]], revenue_arithmetic=dict(base_cagr=(base['revenue_2036']/REVENUE_2026)**.1-1, volume_cagr_with_five_percent_price_decline=((base['revenue_2036']/REVENUE_2026)**.1)/.95-1, growth_with_twenty_percent_more_units_and_seven_percent_lower_prices=1.20*.93-1)) def export(path): path=Path(path); path.mkdir(parents=True,exist_ok=True) data=snapshot() (path/'stress-results.json').write_text(json.dumps(data,indent=2,allow_nan=False)+'\n',encoding='utf-8') with (path/'operating-stress.csv').open('w',newline='',encoding='utf-8') as f: keys=['name','enterprise_value','gross_equity_value','change_enterprise_value','peak_economic_fcf_deficit','economic_deficit_less_assumed_liquidity'] writer=csv.DictWriter(f,fieldnames=keys); writer.writeheader() writer.writerows({k:row[k] for k in keys} for row in data['stress']) print(json.dumps({row['name']:round(row['enterprise_value'],3) for row in data['stress']},indent=2)) if __name__=='__main__': export(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv)>1 else Path(__file__).resolve().parent)