What is MSTR’s liquidation price?

Can Strategy pay its bills without selling bitcoin?

Under the current reserve policy, the model’s cash schedule shows a $903.694 million principal funding need by September 15, 2027. If the board authorizes use of the reserve for principal, the first gap is $90.28 million on March 1, 2028. Both figures assume all scheduled puts and cash dividends are paid, with no new financing, investment yield, or operating cash contribution.⁴

The calculation begins with $4.9162 billion of reported USD Assets on November 8, 2026: the reserve plus $146.2 million of USD Cash. Current annual preferred distributions, assuming every dividend is paid in cash, are $1.42590 billion. Convertible coupons add $34.59452 million, bringing the total to $1.46049 billion a year. This translates STRE’s euro dividend at the European Central Bank’s November 12, 2026 rate of $1.1081 per euro and holds that exchange rate constant.^{2, 3, 4}

Three assumptions carry the result. Capital markets provide no new money. Every holder exercises the scheduled cash put, meaning the right to require early repayment. Every preferred dividend continues at the current rate and is paid in cash, including STRK, which permits qualifying payment in common shares. The base case also assigns no investment yield or net operating cash contribution.⁴

Strategy disclosed $283.8 million in net common-equity sales for November 2–8, 2026, including some shares awaiting settlement.² Paying STRK dividends in qualifying shares can eliminate the small March funding gap in this case. Investment income, new equity, refinancing, a different put election or reduced distributions can also change the date.

Source: workbook cash schedule using Strategy’s November 9, 2026 update, September 2026 Form 10-Q, executed indentures and preferred certificates. Assumes board authorization to use the reserve for principal. Model as of November 12, 2026; this is a conditional funding schedule.^{1, 2, 4}

How much bitcoin does Strategy own?

Strategy reported 850,364 BTC as of November 8, 2026, acquired at an average cost of $75,456 per bitcoin. Its November 9 filing rounded aggregate acquisition cost to $64.16 billion.²

The September quarterly filing describes its bitcoin as “all of which were unencumbered,” meaning not pledged as collateral at that reporting date. A bitcoin price decline therefore does not by itself create a margin-style collateral call.¹

Several figures often cited about Strategy come from June or July.

How long does Strategy’s cash reserve last?

The reserve alone covers 39.2 months of the current annual cash dividend and convertible-interest run rate; all reported USD Assets cover 40.4 months. Both are static ratios that omit principal repayments, changes in dividends, investment income and operating cash flows.⁴

The reserve is subject to a board policy adopted in June 2026. It permits use for preferred dividends and debt interest and sets a minimum equal to twelve months of then-current expected annual charges. Other uses, including note principal, or a balance below that minimum require further board authorization. The board can change or discontinue the policy.¹

That produces two different funding questions. If current policy continues, the $146.2 million of USD Cash is the disclosed unrestricted starting pool for principal and other uses. It is smaller than the $1.010 billion put on September 15, 2027, even before other cash demands. Including the disclosed secured principal, the model needs $903.694 million of additional principal funding by that date if the reserve policy stays unchanged and no other cash arrives.⁴ If the board allows the reserve to fund principal, the modeled first large cash gap moves to March 1, 2028.^{2, 10, 4}

The policy minimum binds before the reserve reaches zero, so a model that spends every reserve dollar cannot call the policy unchanged.

When can bondholders demand their money back?

The first large noncontingent holder put is September 15, 2027; the largest individual one is March 1, 2028. A put can bring cash repayment forward by years from the maturity printed in a bond’s name.^{10, 13}

Amounts below are principal outstanding at September 30, 2026, carried forward through the latest subsequent disclosures. Annual cash coupons assume that principal remains outstanding for a full year. Conversion prices are in dollars per MSTR common share.¹

Sources: September 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 6; executed indentures. Prices shown are rounded reported prices; the workbook calculates precise crossovers from shares per $1,000 principal.^{1, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}

The cash put is at principal plus accrued unpaid interest. Holders can exercise cash puts even if the share price exceeds the conversion price. Early conversion has contractual conditions. Strategy may settle a permitted conversion in cash, shares, or both.^{10, 13}

Other secured loans add $39.894 million of principal. One matures in December 2026, another in June 2027, against non-bitcoin collateral. The filings I found do not disclose their exact split or maturity days, so the stress model places the combined amount at December 31, 2026, the conservative choice. Their reported $0.3 million monthly payment includes principal and interest, so it cannot be added as pure interest. The headline annual run rate includes convertible interest only.^{1, 23, 4}

Source: executed note indentures and September 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 6. Calendar as of November 12, 2026; holders must elect puts.^{10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}

Who gets paid first if bitcoin falls?

Creditors rank ahead of preferred shareholders. The existing preferred order is STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK, and STRD, followed by common stock.^{1, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

The unsecured convertible notes rank equally with other unsubordinated unsecured parent debt. Secured creditors have priority in their collateral; subsidiary creditors have priority over parent shareholders’ access to subsidiary assets.¹

Shares: September 30 filing plus disclosed subsequent activity through November 8, 2026. STRC reflects disclosed repurchases. The estimates hold shares and rates constant.^{1, 2, 22, 3, 4}

Source: workbook capital structure, current shares and rates through November 8, 2026; ECB currency translation November 12. STRC represents 65.7% of this cash run rate. A one-percentage-point STRC rate increase adds $79.935 million a year at unchanged shares.^{3, 4}

All are perpetual: they have no ordinary maturity. STRK alone offers common-stock conversion, initially 0.1 MSTR share per preferred share, equivalent to a $1,000 MSTR conversion price. Fundamental-change repurchase rights and issuer redemption provisions are different from scheduled debt maturities.¹⁹

The stated amounts are also not exact liquidation entitlements. Preferred liquidation preferences can adjust with market-price measures; STRF’s reported preference was $103.57 per share at September 30, 2026. The coverage thresholds use stated-amount proxies unless an exact current preference is available.^{1, 16}

The following static calculation asks when bitcoin plus the starting USD Assets cover cumulative stated financing claims. It assumes all treasury dollars can be used, gives no value to other assets, and excludes taxes, liquidation costs, arrears and nonfinancial liabilities. It is not an insolvency test or an automatic sale price.

Source: workbook, November 8 balances and November 12 currency translation. Formula: (cumulative stated claims − USD Assets) ÷ BTC held. All six convertible series share the debt-level proxy because they rank equally. Current legal liquidation preferences can differ from stated amounts.⁴

Which dividends can Strategy stop paying?

Undeclared STRD dividends do not accumulate. Unpaid dividends on the other four preferred series accumulate under their certificates.^{16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

For STRF and STRE, unpaid dividends compound initially at 11% a year, increasing by one percentage point each quarter to an 18% ceiling. STRK arrears compound quarterly at 8%. STRC arrears compound semi-monthly at its applicable rate.^{16, 17, 18, 19}

STRF and STRK also have conditional payment requirements after qualifying registered equity sales. The $447.8 million of common ATM net proceeds disclosed for October 26–November 8, 2026 already exceeds their combined $60.141 million scheduled fourth-quarter distribution. The relevant issuance window precedes the December 15 record date. Payment remains subject to the certificates’ senior-stock and lawful-funds provisions; STRK’s share-payment provisions also matter.^{2, 22, 16, 19, 4}

If nonpayment persists, STRF and STRK can gain rights to elect directors after four and eight consecutive unpaid quarters, with a shared maximum of two directors. STRF and STRE require specified commercially reasonable fundraising efforts after deferral. Junior dividend payments and repurchases can be restricted while senior arrears remain unpaid.^{16, 18, 19}

STRK’s share option is material to cash runway. Shares used for dividends are valued at 95% of the specified MSTR volume-weighted average price, subject to a share cap using an initially $119.03 floor price. Below that floor, a cash remainder may still be required. A forecast cannot assume unlimited cash savings at every stock price.¹⁹

What is the STRC dividend now?

STRC’s November 2026 annual rate is 12%, but its rate is set by the company within contractual limits rather than mechanically tracking a fixed spread. Reductions face a SOFR-based floor, a limit tied to the previous rate, and a requirement that prior completed months’ dividends have been paid or fully provided for.¹⁷

SOFR is the secured overnight financing rate; this contract uses a specified one-month term measure. A reduction cannot exceed 25 basis points plus the defined decline in that measure during the second preceding month, or take the rate below the applicable SOFR floor. A rate change normally requires notice by the 15th day of the preceding month. A share price below $100 does not automatically force an increase.¹⁷

STRC now uses calendar-day dividend record dates and generally pays on business days. Its first payment under the final daily amendment was November 3, 2026. STRF, STRK, and STRD have a quarterly payment on December 31, 2026, followed by daily payments starting January 4, 2027. STRE stays quarterly.^{17, 21}

The daily formula divides the annual dividend into 24 equal half-month amounts, allocates each across its actual calendar days, and carries forward daily cent-rounding differences. The workbook uses the certificate’s half-month formula.^{17, 21, 4}

Specifically, the dividend for calendar day n is stated amount × annual rate ÷ 24 × n/N, less earlier dividends in that half-month, where N is its calendar-day count. Round down to cents except on the half-month’s final record day, which reconciles the remaining fraction.¹⁷

At what bitcoin price would Strategy need to sell?

For a fixed dollar funding gap, a lower bitcoin price increases the number of coins needed; it does not create the cash due date. Whether bitcoin is sold at all depends on the other funding and payment choices.⁴

The on-page calculator estimates the same obligations by month through June 2029, starting from the workbook’s December opening cash and spreading current charges evenly across the months. It compares two reserve policies and holds operating cash, yield, and new financing at zero. The dated workbook uses contractual payment dates and lets you change investment yield and operating cash.

Bitcoin required = cash shortfall ÷ assumed net proceeds per bitcoin.

Sales are shown before taxes and execution costs. The monthly calculator holds the coupon run rate fixed. The dated workbook stops coupons after the corresponding debt is repaid.

Source is the workbook’s daily cash schedule. Each row gives the total funding gap from the start of the period through that put date. The model pays all dividends and puts in cash, holds rates and foreign exchange fixed, and assumes zero new capital, cash yield, or operating contribution.⁴

Source: workbook, all-cash stress as of November 12, 2026. Every cell uses the same dollar cash schedule; prices change how many bitcoins would supply that cash. Figures are cumulative, pretax sale equivalents.⁴

The low, base and high cases change two independent assumptions: bitcoin’s price and the value the market assigns to common equity relative to modeled net assets. The dollar payment gap is identical in all three because neither assumption supplies new cash. The equity multiple is a model input.

Prices are flat throughout each case. The model deducts unpaid debt and stated preferred claims from net assets. The hypothetical issue test assumes all net common-share proceeds buy bitcoin, with no issuance fee. A higher premium can change that test without changing the contractual bill.⁴

March 1, 2028 funding-gap sensitivity. The columns show how a change to the STRC rate from December onward would affect the funding gap. November uses the declared rate.

All other assumptions stay fixed. Investment yield is a gross assumption. Full STRK share settlement requires compliance with the contractual share cap and other conditions; the cash table does not invent the resulting share dilution. A zero gap on March 1 does not mean later payments are funded.⁴

The conversion table shows when an assumed MSTR share price would fall below a note’s conversion price. It uses the modeled equity multiple, remaining claims, and prior sale equivalents to express the crossover as a bitcoin price. The cash schedule assumes every holder exercises its put even when the model assigns value to conversion.

What is mNAV, and does a discount stop fundraising?

Strategy’s current mNAV divides MSTR’s share price by its defined net bitcoin value per diluted share. A lower ratio can make raising cash through equity less attractive. The definition changed on July 23, 2026.⁵

Under the current method, out-of-the-money convertible principal and preferred stated amounts are deducted from bitcoin value, with USD Assets offsetting those claims. In-the-money instruments instead enter the diluted share count. This differs from a simple enterprise-value-to-gross-bitcoin ratio and from accounting net assets.⁵

The issuer’s November 12 capture showed 1.08× in its main display alongside the $122.35 November 11 regular-session close, and 1.05× beside $113.64 in pre-market trading at 9:25 a.m. ET on November 12. Different trading sessions explain part of the gap, but the bitcoin-value panels do not reconcile, so an independently synchronized current mNAV is UNKNOWN. Neither reading calibrates the model.³⁸

Gross bitcoin per share and net value per share answer different questions. If every net dollar from a new common share purchases bitcoin, gross bitcoin per share rises only when the net issue proceeds per new share exceed the bitcoin value already attributable to each share under the selected denominator. If some proceeds fund dividends, reserve additions or preferred repurchases, that gross accretion hurdle rises.⁴

Repurchasing preferred stock below its stated amount can reduce senior claims even when it buys no bitcoin. Conversely, issuing preferred stock to buy bitcoin can increase gross bitcoin per common share while adding a claim ahead of common shareholders. Neither transaction can be assessed solely by the gross bitcoin count.

Has issuing stock increased bitcoin per share?

The answer depends on the period and denominator. The dataset rebuilds quarterly financing and basic bitcoin per share from the filings and shows the company’s assumed-diluted measure.²⁵

Financing receipts are net of issuance costs. Debt repayments, preferred repurchases, and employee share receipts are outside these totals. Small negative figures represent issuance costs paid in a quarter with no gross issuance receipts. Full quarterly series: 2020 Q1–2026 Q3 in the workbook and historical_quarterly.csv. The statement of cash flows and management’s proceeds-allocation table use different reporting bases.²⁵

One satoshi is one hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. The ordinary BTC/ADSO ratio fell 10.96% in Q3 2026 and 3.73% over the first nine months. These are the percentage changes in holdings per assumed diluted share. Strategy’s modified BTC Yield uses a different formula. Reported share counts round to thousands, which can produce a one-satoshi difference.^{4, 25}

In the third quarter of 2026, the issuer’s allocation table identifies $588.093 million of common-stock proceeds used to buy bitcoin and $4.819630 billion used for other bitcoin-treasury purposes. The latter category includes financing the wider capital structure; common issuance cannot be assumed to translate dollar-for-dollar into additional bitcoin.¹

Each quarter is the change in year-to-date cash-flow statements, with issuance costs, employee equity receipts, debt repayments, and preferred repurchases in their own columns. Basic bitcoin per share divides holdings by both common-share classes outstanding, adjusted consistently for the 2024 ten-for-one stock split.²⁵

Assumed diluted shares include instruments that may not presently convert. They are not the weighted-average diluted shares used in earnings per share. The issuer’s calculation sometimes includes shares sold before the period end that settled later.^{1, 25}

Issue-date premiums are missing where synchronized trade-date holdings, prices, shares and senior claims were not disclosed. A quarter-end price cannot substitute for the price at each ATM sale, so the premium column is left empty rather than filled with an unrelated observation.

Source: Strategy quarterly and annual SEC filings, 2020–2026, reconstructed in the workbook. The workbook gives both basic and assumed-diluted share counts at the available source precision.²⁵

Can the software business cover the dividends?

Consolidated operating cash flow is far smaller than the preferred distribution schedule. Consolidated operating cash flow was $14.267 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, compared with $1.048298 billion of preferred dividends paid in cash during those nine months.¹

Consolidated cash flow already includes debt interest and income associated with the USD Assets. Subtracting another full interest bill from an extrapolated consolidated cash-flow number would count that expense twice. The total also includes treasury income.

The workbook therefore starts with zero net operating contribution and varies annual net cash contribution from −$50 million to +$50 million as explicit sensitivity assumptions. Strategy does not publish a cash-flow statement for the software business alone.^{1, 4}

An additional aircraft purchase also creates cash needs. The original contract disclosed $68 million of installments after the initial 2024 deposit; 2025 reporting identifies a further $26.5 million deposit. The current remaining commitment and exact delivery-payment date are UNKNOWN; the model does not treat the commitment as zero.^{24, 23}

How do bitcoin gains affect taxes and cash?

Unrealized bitcoin gains increase reported earnings. Cash arrives when Strategy sells bitcoin. Under current IRS guidance, Strategy expects to elect to exclude qualifying unrealized gains from its corporate minimum-tax calculation.^{1, 26}

Strategy adopted the new crypto-asset accounting standard on January 1, 2025. Its third-quarter 2026 results included a $20.912392 billion bitcoin gain, but that remeasurement is not money available to pay a dividend. The company says an unrealized gain “does not reflect cash actually earned.”¹

The corporate alternative minimum tax, or CAMT, generally uses a 15% rate and a three-year average adjusted financial-statement-income threshold above $1 billion, subject to statutory conditions. IRS Notice 2025-49 permits an eligible election excluding specified unrealized fair-value movements. Strategy says it intends to use that treatment and does not expect CAMT from unrealized bitcoin gains under the current guidance.^{28, 26, 1}

The relief is interim. Notice 2026-7 did not remove that fair-value option. Previously excluded amounts can enter the adjusted-income calculation on a disposition or another specified adjustment event.^{26, 27}

At September 30, 2026, Strategy disclosed a $1.98 billion deferred tax liability associated with unrealized bitcoin gains and a $91.5 million deferred tax asset from realized bitcoin-sale capital losses. Neither is a current bill. A sale-tax estimate needs tax lots, available offsets and jurisdictional treatment, which are not disclosed, so no single tax haircut on future sales is defensible.¹

Are other bitcoin treasury companies in the same position?

No: similar bitcoin strategies can carry very different collateral, dividend and repayment obligations. The comparison below covers the three largest verified non-mining companies by latest disclosed BTC holdings in the selected U.S.-national-exchange treasury screen; dates differ because their latest disclosures differ.^{29, 31, 34}

XXI’s executed indenture uses December 8, 2028 in its operative put section, while the attached form of note gives June 8, 2028. DJT’s original note face and latest payment table differ by $16.5 million. The filings leave both differences unresolved.^{30, 34}

The peer comparison covers non-miners. The dataset also includes MARA, whose mining operations produce bitcoin. CEPO’s proposed BSTR transaction was terminated on August 20, 2026, so its announced acquisition should not be counted as an executed public-company holding.^{36, 37}

Is MicroStrategy going bankrupt?

The current filings show a substantial cash buffer, unencumbered bitcoin at the last quarter end, and a schedule of holder puts. How the company meets those dates will depend on what it can raise, sell, refinance, or pay in shares.^{1, 2}

The evidence that would change the modeled answer is concrete: new financing that settles, a note retirement or refinancing, holder conversion or put elections, changes to STRC’s rate or preferred shares outstanding, a switch in STRK payment form, a reserve-policy change, or a material operating or tax cash requirement. Bitcoin price changes the asset coverage and potential sale quantity; those other events determine whether a sale becomes necessary.

The next scheduled review is November 13, 2026, when Twenty One is due to report. The Strategy figures use the November 9 capital update and will need a refresh after new capital disclosures, dividend terms, or quarterly results.³⁵

Sources

Sources were pulled November 12, 2026. These notes list the main public documents.

1. Strategy, Form 10-Q, September 30, 2026, filed November 2, 2026. Balance sheet; cash flows; Notes 3, 6, 8, 10 and 13; MD&A USD Assets and capital-allocation/KPI tables; fair-value risk discussion. ↩
2. Strategy, November 9, 2026 Form 8-K, Item 8.01, holdings, ATM, repurchases and USD Assets through November 8. ↩
3. European Central Bank, USD reference exchange rate, November 12, 2026, USD per EUR. ↩
4. The Excel model calculates the scenario results. The main outputs are Summary!B6, Summary!B10, Summary!B15, and Summary!B16. The calculation index links the results to their sources. ↩
5. Strategy, metric definitions, mNAV, Net BTC, Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding and BTC Yield; methodology change July 23, 2026. ↩
6. Strategy, STRC dashboard, November 11, 2026 close and announced November annual rate. ↩
7. Strategy, July 6, 2026 Form 8-K, Item 8.01, bitcoin sales June 29–July 5 and USD Reserve. ↩
8. MicroStrategy, December 28, 2022 Form 8-K, Item 8.01, December 22 bitcoin sale. ↩
9. Strategy, bitcoin dashboard, displayed observation November 12, 2026, 9:25 a.m. ET. The price and valuation panels show different timestamps. ↩
10. 2028 note indenture, filed September 20, 2024, §§6.01, 14.01 and 15.01. ↩
11. 2029 note indenture, filed November 21, 2024; current principal from Note 6 of the September 2026 10-Q. ↩
12. 2030A note indenture, dated March 8, 2024, §§14.01 and 15.01; split-adjusted conversion ratio from the current 10-Q. ↩
13. 2030B note indenture, dated February 21, 2025, conversion, repurchase and default provisions. ↩
14. 2031 note indenture, dated March 18, 2024; current remaining principal and split-adjusted ratio from the current 10-Q. ↩
15. 2032 note indenture, dated June 17 and filed June 20, 2024; conversion and repurchase provisions. ↩
16. STRF, original certificate, §§1, 4, 5 and 9; October 2026 amendment, effective January 1, 2027. ↩
17. STRC, October 2026 certificate, effective November 1, §§1, 4 and 5; November 2 prospectus supplement, rate, daily arithmetic and payment dates. ↩
18. STRE, November 2025 certificate, §§1, 4, 5, 8, 9 and 13. ↩
19. STRK, original certificate, §5; July 2025 amendment; October 2026 restatement, effective January 1, 2027. ↩
20. STRD, original certificate, §5; October 2026 restatement, effective January 1, 2027. ↩
21. November 2, 2026 prospectus supplements for STRF, STRK and STRD, daily payment and calculation amendments. ↩
22. Strategy, November 2, 2026 Form 8-K, Item 8.01, October 26–November 1 activity. ↩
23. Strategy, 2025 Form 10-K, filed February 19, 2026, Note 8 secured loans and MD&A cash requirements/investing cash flows. ↩
24. Strategy, 2024 Form 10-K, Note 6, p.90, aircraft purchase agreement and installments. ↩
25. Strategy’s quarterly and annual SEC statements, linked individually in historical_sources.csv. Source facts, statement controls and denominator precision notes are included in the supporting data. Earliest treasury-program period: September 2020; latest: September 2026. ↩
26. IRS, Notice 2025-49, §5, especially §§5.01, 5.03 and 5.05, printed pp.31–40. ↩
27. IRS, Notice 2026-7, overview and §§3, 11. ↩
28. IRS, corporate alternative minimum tax overview, applicability and rate. ↩
29. Twenty One Capital, June 2026 Form 10-Q, balance sheet, cash flows and Notes 6–9, filed August 11, 2026. ↩
30. Twenty One Capital, executed convertible-note indenture, §15.01 versus attached Form of Note A-5/A-6; date conflict unresolved. ↩
31. Strive, November 9, 2026 Form 8-K, Item 8.01, November 6 holdings, cash and shares. ↩
32. Strive, September 2026 Form 10-Q, Notes 3 and 6, capital stock and liquidity, filed November 6, 2026. ↩
33. Strive, October 13, 2026 Form 8-K, November SATA rate and designation changes. ↩
34. Trump Media, September 2026 Form 10-Q, Notes 4 and 10, balance sheet and liquidity, filed November 9, 2026. ↩
35. Twenty One Capital, company announcement of November 13, 2026 earnings call, released November 5, 2026; call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. ↩
36. Cantor Equity Partners I, August 20, 2026 Form 8-K, Items 1.02 and 8.01, BSTR transaction termination. ↩
37. MARA, September 2026 Form 10-Q, Notes 13 and 18 and liquidity, filed November 9, 2026. ↩
38. Strategy, MSTR dashboard, captured November 12, 2026. Regular-session and pre-market labels and published market data. ↩
39. Nasdaq STRC price history, regular-session closes. ↩
40. Strategy, Form 10-Q, June 30, 2026, MD&A discussion of the USD Reserve and expected annual charges. ↩