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Financial systems

# What does a Fed rate hike mean for me?

A quarter-point hike adds $25 a year per $10,000 of fully repriced debt. National savings rates rose just 7.4% as much in 2022–23.

[Sulayman Bowles](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about)

Nov 12, 202618 min read5 figures6 tables23 sources

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## The short version

1. A quarter-point hike adds $25 a year per $10,000 of variable debt repriced for a full year, but only about $1.86 per $10,000 in savings at the historical 7.4% response.
2. In 2022–23 the 25-bank cohort passed 28.6% of the Fed increase to savings depositors by 2023 Q4, with Wells Fargo at 14.5% and Ally at 70.7%.
3. The share of the Fed increase that banks must pass to savers to break even is 36.2%, 27.7% and 12.1%, from the lower to the upper income third.
4. New mortgage rates can rise, fall or hold around a Fed decision; a move from 7.11% to 7.36% on $300,000 adds $50.84 a month.

A quarter-point Fed hike adds **$25 a year per $10,000** of variable debt when the full increase reaches your rate. I calculate about **$1.86 more per $10,000** in savings using the national savings rate’s **7.4%** response in 2022–23. Existing fixed-rate loans keep their rates. On **November 12, 2026**, the Fed target stood at **3.75%–4.00%**.1, 12

| What you have | Direct effect of a quarter-point increase | When it can reach you |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Prime-linked card balance charged interest | $25 more annual interest per unchanged $10,000 if the APR rises fully | Under the agreement’s billing-cycle reset |
| Drawn, variable-rate home equity line | Same $25 per $10,000 under full repricing | Contract’s index-reset schedule |
| Existing fixed-rate auto loan or mortgage | $0 direct repricing | The contractual rate stays fixed |
| Savings deposit | Bank decides; historical national response implies about $1.86 per $10,000 annually | No automatic reset date |
| New auto loan or mortgage | Depends on the new loan quote, term and principal | When the new contract is priced |

These figures assume the balance stays outstanding and interest-bearing for the stated period. The [formula workbook](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/fed-rate-hike-model.xlsx) calculates both a full year at the new rates and the first year after reset delays.5

What would a Fed rate hike cost or pay you?

Credit card balance, $Adjustable loan balance, $Savings balance, $Share of rate increase passed to savings, %

Change in interest over one year

| Account | +0.25 percentage points | +1.00 percentage point |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Credit card interest | $25.00 | $100.00 |
| Adjustable loan interest | $62.50 | $250.00 |
| Existing fixed-rate loan interest | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Savings interest earned | $3.71 | $14.86 |
| Net additional interest cost | $83.79 | $335.14 |

Example arithmetic for general information. Balances stay constant. The card and adjustable loan rates rise by the full amount in the scenario.

## Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?

The Fed’s December decision is pending. In September, officials projected where the target would end the year, and the calculator below shows what a quarter-point or one-point increase would do to a household.2

The Fed meets **December 8–9**, with its decision due **December 9**. It raised the target by a quarter point on **September 16, 2026** and held it at **3.75%–4.00%** on **October 28**. The effective overnight federal funds rate was **3.88%** on **November 9**.1

Kevin Warsh took office on **May 22, 2026**. In September, the median official projection for the year-end target midpoint was **4.1%** after rounding. Consumer prices rose **0.4%** in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. BLS lacked the October 2025 observations needed for the corresponding annual comparisons.3, 2, 4

The next policy update is due **December 9, 2026**. The bank analysis runs through **June 2026**, the latest complete quarterly download.15

## How quickly do credit-card and HELOC rates change?

A prime-linked contract can pass through a rate increase quickly. The rate is prime plus a margin, and the contract specifies when the new rate takes effect.5

Chase’s agreement applies the new rate from the first day of the billing cycle in which prime changes. Chase checks prime shortly before the statement closes. U.S. Bank raised prime from **6.75% to 7.00%**, effective **September 17, 2026**.5, 6

A home equity line of credit, or **HELOC**, lets you borrow against your home as needed. The increase applies to the balance you have drawn at a variable rate. Fixed-rate portions, caps and floors affect the result. Payments can also rise when the loan shifts from an interest-only draw period to repayment of principal.7

The latest G.19 observation for cards charged interest is **22.36% for August 2026**, published in the **November 6** release. That series is an annualized finance-charge-to-balance ratio. The average stated APR across all accounts was **21.19%**.8

From **February 2022 to August 2023**, the interest-assessed card rate rose from **16.17% to 22.77%**, or **6.60 percentage points**, while the policy target rose **5.25 points**. The observed ratio is **125.7%**. The card-minus-prime gap widened **1.35 points**, so attributing the entire change to the Fed would overstate the mechanical index effect. The gap can reflect changes in margins and account composition; CFPB’s card-market work documents margin changes separately.9, 10

## How much did rates move in the last two hiking cycles?

Prime matched the policy increases. New-loan quotes, deposit rates and money-market yields moved by different amounts over each full cycle.9, 11, 13

The baseline and ending observations are **November 2015–February 2019** for the first cycle and **February 2022–August 2023** for the second. Those endpoints bracket the first hikes and include a credit survey after the final hikes. The target increases are **2.25** and **5.25 percentage points**, respectively. A **basis point** is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so a quarter-point move is **25 basis points**.11

| Rate | 2015–18 cycle: change / Fed change | 2022–23 cycle: change / Fed change | First higher reading after March 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Prime | 2.25 pp / 100.0% | 5.25 pp / 100.0% | 0 months |
| Cards charged interest | 3.21 pp / 142.7% | 6.60 pp / 125.7% | 2 months |
| New 60-month auto | 1.19 pp / 52.9% | 3.36 pp / 64.0% | 2 months |
| New 30-year mortgage | 0.43 pp / 19.0% | 3.31 pp / 63.0% | 0 months |
| Three-month Treasury bill | 2.27 pp / 100.9% | 4.97 pp / 94.7% | 0 months |
| Government money-market funds | 2.19 pp / 97.3% | 5.14 pp / 97.9% | 0 months |
| National savings | 0.03 pp / 1.3% | 0.39 pp / 7.4% | 1 month |

“First higher reading” counts the months from the first hike to the first published rate above its baseline. The Fed samples credit rates in the middle month of each quarter, so the survey can miss changes within that interval. In the earlier cycle, the interest-assessed card rate first exceeded its baseline after **eight months**, while the all-account rate did so after **two**. The old national savings series took **26 months** to clear its baseline.9

From 2015 to 2019 card rates rose 3.2 points and national savings rates 0.03, against a 2.25-point Fed increase

Change in each rate from the month before the first hike, percentage points, November 2015 to February 2019

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Federal Reserve G.19/H.15 and policy targets; FDIC; Freddie Mac; SEC. Retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Quarterly observations, the months when the card and auto series are published, plus the month before the first hike (0.0). Observed changes include pricing, borrower mix and expectations; they are not causal forecasts.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)

**Show the numbers**

| percentage points | Fed target | Cards charged interest | New auto loans | New mortgages | National savings |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Nov 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Feb 2016 | 0.3 | −0.2 | 0.1 | −0.3 | 0.0 |
| May 2016 | 0.3 | −0.4 | 0.1 | −0.3 | 0.0 |
| Aug 2016 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | −0.5 | 0.0 |
| Nov 2016 | 0.3 | −0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 |
| Feb 2017 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| May 2017 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Aug 2017 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | −0.1 | 0.0 |
| Nov 2017 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | −0.0 | 0.0 |
| Feb 2018 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| May 2018 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Aug 2018 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Nov 2018 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Feb 2019 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |

From 2022 to 2023 card rates rose 6.6 points and national savings rates 0.39, against a 5.25-point Fed increase

Change in each rate from the month before the first hike, percentage points, February 2022 to August 2023

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Federal Reserve G.19/H.15 and policy targets; FDIC; Freddie Mac; SEC. Retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Quarterly observations, the months when the card and auto series are published, plus the month before the first hike (0.0). Observed changes include pricing, borrower mix and expectations; they are not causal forecasts.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/01-rate-response-speed.png)

**Numbers and method**

| percentage points | Fed target | Cards charged interest | New auto loans | New mortgages | National savings |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Feb 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| May 2022 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Aug 2022 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Nov 2022 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Feb 2023 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| May 2023 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 0.4 |
| Aug 2023 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.4 |

Sources: Federal Reserve policy history and G.19/H.15; FDIC; Freddie Mac; SEC (retrieved November 12, 2026). See [cycle results](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/cycle-results.csv) and [monthly source inputs](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip).

The FDIC dates need care. Its **September 18, 2023** publication’s **0.45%** savings rate describes information from the prior month-end. The main comparison therefore aligns that figure to **August 2023**. Against **0.06%** at the February 2022 reference date, the rise is **0.39 point**, or **7.43%** of the Fed increase. Comparing publication months without this adjustment gives **7.05%**, so the conclusion holds. The FDIC also changed its weighting and institution coverage in **April 2021**.12

Government money-market funds responded much more fully. Their asset-weighted annualized net seven-day yield rose from **0.02% to 5.16%**, or **97.9%** of the Fed increase. These are investment funds. The bank data below include money-market deposit accounts. Treasury bill rates in the table use the discount-yield convention.13, 14

## Which banks passed more of the increase to depositors?

The 25-bank cohort’s pooled savings and money-market deposit cost absorbed **28.6%** of the Fed increase by **2023 Q4**. Individual banks ranged widely: JPMorgan Chase was **15.1%**, Bank of America **17.0%**, Wells Fargo **14.5%** and Ally **70.7%**.15

The table measures what each bank paid across its regulatory savings category, which includes money-market, business, institutional and brokerage-related deposits. A change in account mix or an acquisition can move the bank’s average even when an existing customer’s rate holds steady. That matters particularly for custody and wealth banks.16

For each legal entity, quarterly interest expense equals its year-to-date **RIAD0093** expense less the previous same-year amount. Divide by **RCONB563**, the reported quarterly average savings balance, and annualize using **365 divided by the quarter’s days**. Both money fields use thousands of dollars. Reported balance averages can be daily or Wednesday weekly averages. The cycle ratio divides the resulting rate change by **5.25 percentage points**.16

| Rank | Bank legal entity | 2021 Q4 cost | 2023 Q4 cost | Share of Fed increase |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | State Street Bank and Trust | 0.43% | 5.80% | 102.2% |
| 2 | EverBank† | 0.34% | 5.12% | 91.0% |
| 3 | Goldman Sachs Bank USA | 0.25% | 4.75% | 85.8% |
| 4 | Morgan Stanley Bank | 0.01% | 4.33% | 82.2% |
| 5 | Synchrony Bank† | 0.47% | 4.69% | 80.4% |
| 6 | American Express National Bank | 0.37% | 4.40% | 76.7% |
| 7 | Barclays Bank Delaware† | 0.43% | 4.38% | 75.3% |
| 8 | Sallie Mae Bank† | 0.66% | 4.57% | 74.6% |
| 9 | Discover Bank† | 0.40% | 4.30% | 74.3% |
| 10 | Morgan Stanley Private Bank | 0.01% | 3.90% | 74.0% |
| 11 | Axos Bank† | 0.20% | 4.08% | 74.0% |
| 12 | Ally Bank | 0.49% | 4.20% | 70.7% |
| 13 | Capital One | 0.30% | 3.45% | 60.1% |
| 14 | Huntington National Bank | 0.06% | 2.74% | 51.1% |
| 15 | Citizens Bank | 0.07% | 2.67% | 49.6% |
| 16 | First-Citizens Bank and Trust | 0.03% | 2.58% | 48.6% |
| 17 | Citibank | 0.16% | 2.61% | 46.6% |
| 18 | KeyBank | 0.02% | 2.39% | 45.1% |
| 19 | U.S. Bank | 0.07% | 2.33% | 43.0% |
| 20 | Truist Bank | 0.02% | 2.25% | 42.4% |
| 21 | Bank of New York Mellon | 0.00% | 2.17% | 41.4% |
| 22 | Fifth Third Bank | 0.03% | 2.08% | 39.1% |
| 23 | TD Bank | 0.03% | 1.98% | 37.3% |
| 24 | Northern Trust | 0.05% | 1.94% | 36.0% |
| 25 | BMO Bank | 0.07% | 1.94% | 35.6% |
| 26 | M&T Bank | 0.02% | 1.31% | 24.5% |
| 27 | PNC Bank | 0.02% | 1.30% | 24.2% |
| 28 | Bank of America | 0.02% | 0.91% | 17.0% |
| 29 | JPMorgan Chase Bank | 0.04% | 0.83% | 15.1% |
| 30 | Wells Fargo Bank | 0.02% | 0.78% | 14.5% |
| 31 | Charles Schwab Bank | 0.01% | 0.64% | 11.9% |
| — | SoFi Bank† | 0.03% | 4.49% | Not comparable |

*Quarterly endpoints are 2021 Q4 and 2023 Q4. † Marks seven additional large online-deposit comparators. The remaining rows are the 25 largest FDIC-insured bank entities by June 2026 assets. The rank covers the 31 comparable entities and uses unrounded figures. [Full bank table](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/bank-pass-through-results.csv) · [Raw inputs and source tags](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip).*

SoFi’s charter and business changed materially after 2021, leaving the two quarters hard to compare. Discover appears as a historical comparator. The bank panel follows its standalone record through the acquisition. State Street’s ratio above **100%** applies to its aggregate regulatory deposit category. Selecting banks by June 2026 assets gives acquisitions and surviving charters a role in the historical comparison.15

Goldman Sachs and Ally passed on 71% to 86% of the 5.25-point hikes to deposit costs; Wells Fargo, Chase and Bank of America 15% to 17%

Share of the 5.25-point Fed increase reflected in savings and money-market deposit funding cost, 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q4, selected banks

FFIEC Call Reports and Federal Reserve targets; 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q4; retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Legal-entity totals include business and institutional accounts. These are not advertised consumer APYs.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/bank-pass-through-results.csv)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/02-bank-pass-through.png)

**Numbers and method**

| % of Fed increase | Share of Fed increase in deposit cost |
| --- | --- |
| Goldman Sachs Bank USA | 85.8% |
| Ally Bank | 70.7% |
| Bank of America | 17.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank | 15.1% |
| Wells Fargo Bank | 14.5% |

Source: FFIEC Call Reports and Federal Reserve targets; 2021 Q4–2023 Q4; retrieved November 12, 2026. Selected institutions shown; the complete ranking is above.

The cohort’s pooled deposit cost kept rising after the last hike of the cycle in **July 2023**. By **2024 Q2** it reached **1.77%**, or **32.7%** of the full Fed increase above the pre-hike cost.15

## What would a quarter-point hike cost my household?

With **$10,000** in interest-bearing card debt, **$25,000** drawn on a variable HELOC and **$20,000** in savings, full debt repricing adds **$87.50** of annual interest. Repeating the historical national savings response adds only **$3.71** of savings interest, leaving a **$83.79 annual net cost**.17

The example holds balances constant and assumes the household pays interest as it comes due. Which balances reprice, how much savings rates move and when each rate resets determine the result. The calculation excludes taxes, fees and changes in income or asset prices.

| Savings response | Savings gain on $20,000: +0.25 point | Net household change: +0.25 point | Net household change: +1 point |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Low (0.0%) | $0.00 | −$87.50 | −$350.00 |
| Base (7.4%) | $3.71 | −$83.79 | −$335.14 |
| High (100.0%) | $50.00 | −$37.50 | −$150.00 |

The base case repeats the national savings rate’s historical response. The high case assumes the bank passes through the full increase. With a one-month debt lag and a three-month savings lag, the base net cost is **$77.42 in the first 12 months**. It rises to **$83.79** over a full year at the new rates.17

| Savings pass-through | Extra annual interest per $10,000 savings: +0.25 point | Same: +1 point |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 0.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 7.4% | $1.86 | $7.43 |
| 25.0% | $6.25 | $25.00 |
| 50.0% | $12.50 | $50.00 |
| 75.0% | $18.75 | $75.00 |
| 100.0% | $25.00 | $100.00 |

The on-page calculator shows a full year after the rates adjust, with shocks of **0.25** and **1.00 percentage point**. The workbook also models first-year timing, money-market fund yields and payments on new loans.17

## Which households break even?

The income groups break even at different savings responses because their debt and savings balances differ.18

The **2025 Survey of Consumer Finances**, released **October 9, 2026**, is the latest survey. I use all five imputed versions of each public record with the Fed’s supplied weight. SCF families—the survey’s primary economic units—are split at weighted prior-year pretax-income cutoffs of approximately **$53,405** and **$121,189**, in **2025 dollars**. Tied incomes stay together, so the groups are not exact thirds.18

The table uses weighted mean balances, including families with zero balances. Savings includes savings accounts and money-market deposits. The calculation treats all listed card balances as interest-bearing and all HELOC balances as variable-rate exposures.18

| 2025 SCF income third | Cards after payment | HELOC | Savings + MMDA | Vehicle loans | Annual net: +0.25 point | Annual net: +1 point |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lower | $1,439 | $329 | $4,889 | $2,662 | −$3.51 | −$14.05 |
| Middle | $4,275 | $1,316 | $20,160 | $7,070 | −$10.23 | −$40.93 |
| Upper | $5,029 | $5,088 | $83,781 | $12,567 | −$9.73 | −$38.93 |

*Annual scenario: full card/HELOC repricing and the 7.43% historical national savings response, with constant 2025-dollar balances. Existing vehicle loans are treated as fixed. Point estimates; no replicate-weight confidence intervals were calculated.*

The savings response needed to break even is **36.2%**, **27.7%** and **12.1%**, from the lower to upper income third. Families with less variable-rate debt relative to savings break even with a smaller deposit-rate increase.17

After a 0.25-point rate rise a middle-income household loses $14 a year with no savings response and gains $36 with a full one

Annual net interest change after a +0.25-point shock, 2025 survey mean portfolios including zero balances, USD, before tax, by income third

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2025 Survey of Consumer Finances public extracts and stated model assumptions. Retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Assumes all card and HELOC balances reprice fully, fixed auto loans do not reprice, and the historical national savings beta is 7.43%. Constant 2025 dollars.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/04-household-effects.png)

**Numbers and method**

| USD per year | No savings response | Historical national savings response | Full savings response |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lower income third | −$4 | −$4 | $8 |
| Middle income third | −$14 | −$10 | $36 |
| Upper income third | −$25 | −$10 | $184 |

Sources: 2025 SCF public data and stated model assumptions. Balances in 2025 dollars; scenario calculations as of November 12, 2026. [Weighted inputs](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip); [results](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip).

The New York Fed reported **$19.105 trillion** in household debt at the end of the third quarter of 2026, including **$1.285 trillion** in card balances. The card figure includes people who pay in full. About half the **$257 billion** increase in mortgages came from balances reappearing after a reporting gap.19

## Will mortgage rates go up when the Fed raises rates?

New mortgage rates can rise, fall or remain flat around a Fed decision. They reflect long-term Treasury yields plus a changing mortgage spread, both of which incorporate expectations beyond the next overnight-rate decision.21

Freddie Mac’s **November 12, 2026** survey put the **30-year rate at 7.11%**. Against the **4.88%** Treasury yield recorded on **November 9**, that is a gap of **2.23 percentage points**. Treasury’s **November 10** ten-year yield was **4.98%**, so the gap depends on the comparison day.20

The historical chart compares monthly averages for both rates. The difference reflects origination, servicing, guarantees, lender compensation and risks such as prepayment. Freddie Mac changed the mortgage-survey method in **November 2022**.21, 20

The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.3% in October 2026, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.1%

Monthly average 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield, %, 2015 to October 2026

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Freddie Mac PMMS and Federal Reserve H.15 (GS10), via FRED. Retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Every fourth month, ending October 2026. The gap is not all lender profit; Freddie Mac changed its survey method on Nov 17, 2022.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)

**Show the numbers**

| % annual rate | 30-year mortgage | 10-year Treasury |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Feb 2015 | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Jun 2015 | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Oct 2015 | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Feb 2016 | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Jun 2016 | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Oct 2016 | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Feb 2017 | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Jun 2017 | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Oct 2017 | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Feb 2018 | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Jun 2018 | 4.6% | 2.9% |
| Oct 2018 | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Feb 2019 | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Jun 2019 | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Oct 2019 | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Feb 2020 | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Jun 2020 | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Oct 2020 | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Feb 2021 | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Jun 2021 | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Oct 2021 | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Feb 2022 | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Jun 2022 | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Oct 2022 | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Feb 2023 | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Jun 2023 | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Oct 2023 | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| Feb 2024 | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Jun 2024 | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Oct 2024 | 6.4% | 4.1% |
| Feb 2025 | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Jun 2025 | 6.8% | 4.4% |
| Oct 2025 | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Jun 2026 | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Oct 2026 | 7.3% | 5.1% |

The mortgage-Treasury gap peaked near 3 points in 2023 and was 2.2 in October 2026

30-year mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield, percentage points, 2015 to October 2026

Freddie Mac PMMS and Federal Reserve H.15 (GS10), via FRED. Retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Every fourth month, ending October 2026. The gap is not all lender profit; Freddie Mac changed its survey method on Nov 17, 2022.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/03-mortgage-decomposition.png)

**Numbers and method**

| percentage points | Gap |
| --- | --- |
| Feb 2015 | 1.7 |
| Jun 2015 | 1.6 |
| Oct 2015 | 1.7 |
| Feb 2016 | 1.9 |
| Jun 2016 | 1.9 |
| Oct 2016 | 1.7 |
| Feb 2017 | 1.8 |
| Jun 2017 | 1.7 |
| Oct 2017 | 1.5 |
| Feb 2018 | 1.5 |
| Jun 2018 | 1.7 |
| Oct 2018 | 1.7 |
| Feb 2019 | 1.7 |
| Jun 2019 | 1.7 |
| Oct 2019 | 2.0 |
| Feb 2020 | 2.0 |
| Jun 2020 | 2.4 |
| Oct 2020 | 2.0 |
| Feb 2021 | 1.6 |
| Jun 2021 | 1.5 |
| Oct 2021 | 1.5 |
| Feb 2022 | 1.8 |
| Jun 2022 | 2.4 |
| Oct 2022 | 2.9 |
| Feb 2023 | 2.5 |
| Jun 2023 | 3.0 |
| Oct 2023 | 2.8 |
| Feb 2024 | 2.6 |
| Jun 2024 | 2.6 |
| Oct 2024 | 2.3 |
| Feb 2025 | 2.4 |
| Jun 2025 | 2.4 |
| Oct 2025 | 2.2 |
| Feb 2026 | 1.9 |
| Jun 2026 | 2.0 |
| Oct 2026 | 2.2 |

Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS and Federal Reserve H.15, via FRED. Monthly observations through October 2026; retrieved November 12, 2026. [Rebuild the decomposition](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip).

An existing fixed-rate mortgage keeps its rate. For a **new $300,000, 30-year mortgage**, an increase in the quoted rate from **7.11% to 7.36%** would add **$50.84 a month** to principal and interest.17

## What about auto loans?

An existing fixed-rate auto loan keeps its rate. New quotes reflect lenders’ funding costs, credit losses and pricing as well as the borrower’s credit.22

For a **new $30,000, 60-month loan**, the latest G.19 rate of **7.54%** gives a **$601.71** monthly payment in a fee-free scenario where that APR equals the nominal contract rate. A hypothetical **7.79%** quote gives **$605.28**, an increase of **$3.57 a month** or **$42.87** across twelve payments. First-year interest rises **$70.24**; the difference leaves **$27.38** more principal outstanding after those payments. Payment increase and interest increase are different quantities.8, 17

The [auto-loan tapes report](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/financial-systems/auto-loan-abs-tapes) examines how those loans perform after origination.

## What happened to bank margins?

The fixed 25-bank cohort’s pooled net interest margin widened from **2.15% in 2021 Q4** to **3.08% in 2023 Q4**, before easing to **2.93% in 2024 Q2**. It was **3.04% in 2026 Q2**.23

**Net interest margin** is annualized net interest income divided by average earning assets. Margins can widen when loans and other assets reprice faster than deposits. Deposit competition, shifts in funding and changes in assets can compress them later.23

Large-bank savings costs rose from 0.06% to a peak of 1.83% in 2024 Q3 while net interest margin held near 3%

Net interest margin and savings and money-market funding cost, annualized %, 25 largest insured bank legal entities at June 30, 2026, 2021 Q4 to 2026 Q2

-
-

FFIEC Call Reports and FDIC Financials API; pooled numerators and denominators; retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Fixed cohort of 25 banks.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/05-bank-margins.png)

**Numbers and method**

| annualized % | Net interest margin | Savings/MMDA funding cost |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2021 Q4 | 2.15% | 0.06% |
| 2022 Q1 | 2.15% | 0.06% |
| 2022 Q2 | 2.40% | 0.12% |
| 2022 Q3 | 2.75% | 0.35% |
| 2022 Q4 | 3.12% | 0.72% |
| 2023 Q1 | 3.09% | 1.01% |
| 2023 Q2 | 3.08% | 1.21% |
| 2023 Q3 | 3.12% | 1.41% |
| 2023 Q4 | 3.08% | 1.56% |
| 2024 Q1 | 2.97% | 1.70% |
| 2024 Q2 | 2.93% | 1.77% |
| 2024 Q3 | 3.00% | 1.83% |
| 2024 Q4 | 3.03% | 1.68% |
| 2025 Q1 | 3.00% | 1.59% |
| 2025 Q2 | 3.02% | 1.65% |
| 2025 Q3 | 3.10% | 1.66% |
| 2025 Q4 | 3.14% | 1.57% |
| 2026 Q1 | 3.06% | 1.53% |
| 2026 Q2 | 3.04% | 1.53% |

Source: FFIEC Call Reports and FDIC financial data, 2021 Q4–2026 Q2; fixed 25-bank cohort; retrieved November 12, 2026. [Pooled calculation data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip).

Margin here follows FDIC’s quarterly convention: four times quarterly net interest income divided by its quarterly average earning-assets denominator. That denominator uses the average of consecutive quarter-end balances. The savings cost uses the reported quarterly-average deposit balance and the number of days in the quarter.23

The [Texas bank Call Report study](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/texas/texas-bank-call-report-stress-test) uses the same filings to measure balance-sheet risks.

## What would change this answer?

The household conclusion changes most when the balance that reprices or the bank’s deposit response changes.

A new account agreement, binding rate cap or fixed-rate conversion changes the borrowing exposure. A dated bank rate notice changes the savings assumption. A different loan quote changes the amortization calculation. The next complete Call Report quarter tests whether deposit costs are catching up, while the next FOMC decision changes the policy facts. A decline in long-term yields could offset a Fed hike for new mortgages. A historical cycle ratio is not a forecast.

The stable arithmetic is **$25 per $10,000 for a quarter-point full-year repricing**. The savings side rarely follows automatically.

## Questions about Fed rate hikes

### How much does a quarter-point Fed hike cost on a credit card?

A quarter-point increase in APR adds $25 over a year on an unchanged $10,000 interest-bearing balance. The card agreement governs fixed promotions, grace periods and rate caps.

### Will my savings rate rise when the Fed raises rates?

Your bank decides. From February 2022 to August 2023, the national savings rate rose 0.39 percentage point against a 5.25-point Fed increase. Banks and accounts can differ from that 7.4% response.

### Does a Fed hike increase my existing auto or mortgage payment?

Existing fixed-rate auto and mortgage loans keep their contractual rates. New loans, refinancings and adjustable-rate contracts can have different rates, and escrow charges can change independently.

### When do prime-linked card and HELOC rates reset?

The agreement determines the reset date. The Chase card agreement can apply a new prime-linked rate from the first day of the relevant billing cycle. A HELOC change applies to its drawn variable-rate balance.

### Will mortgage rates rise if the Fed hikes in December?

New mortgage rates can move in either direction. They reflect long-term Treasury yields and a changing mortgage spread. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage survey rate was 7.11% on November 12, 2026.

## Sources and calculation notes

Every source below was retrieved on November 12, 2026. The [numerical claim register](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip) maps model values to workbook cells, and the [source register](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-register.csv) gives document dates, URLs and page or tag locators.

1. Federal Reserve, [September 16, 2026 statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm), policy paragraph; [October 28 statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), policy and dissent paragraphs; [meeting calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), December 2026 entry; [DFF](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF), November 9 observation. Inputs: Current inputs, CF001/CF002/CF004/CF009. ↩
2. Federal Reserve, [September 16 projections](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm), Table 1 and Figure 2. The workbook records a reported November 11 CME snapshot. A public exchange quote for its exact odds could not be independently verified. ↩
3. Federal Reserve, [May 22, 2026 oath-of-office release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm), opening paragraph. CF003. ↩
4. BLS, [October 2026 CPI release, November 10](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11102026.htm), opening paragraph and annual-comparison notice. CF006. ↩
5. Chase, [COL00076 cardmember agreement](https://www.chase.com/content/feed/public/creditcards/cma/Chase/COL00076.pdf), PDF page 5, Variable Rate; page 1, rates, caps and grace period. CFPB, [Regulation Z interpretation](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/rules-policy/regulations/1026/interp-55/), 55(b)(2). CM001/CM002. The workbook’s one-month timing input is illustrative. ↩
6. U.S. Bank, [September 16, 2026 prime announcement](https://ir.usbank.com/news-events/news/news-details/2026/U-S--Bank-Increases-Prime-Lending-Rate-to-7-00-Percent/default.aspx), effective-date paragraph. CM009. ↩
7. Chase, [HELOC payment explanation](https://www.chase.com/personal/home-equity/customer-service/info/calculate-payments), interest-rate and draw/repayment sections; OCC, [HELOC variable-rate explanation](https://www.helpwithmybank.gov/help-topics/mortgages-home-equity/home-equity-loans-lines-of-credit/heloc-variable.html), main answer. CM003/CM004. ↩
8. Federal Reserve, [G.19, November 6, 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/), Terms of Credit and footnote 5. August 2026 middle-quarter observations. RATE_CARD_INT/RATE_CARD_ALL/RATE_AUTO. ↩
9. Federal Reserve, [G.19 historical terms](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/HIST/cc_hist_tc_levels.html), 2015 Q4, 2019 Q1, 2022 Q1 and 2023 Q3; [series definitions](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/about.htm), Part IV. Current-vintage historical observations from FRED TERMCBCCINTNS, TERMCBCCALLNS and RIFLPBCIANM60NM. `Rate calc!A5:L21`; source series and preparation in data/rate_sources.csv. ↩
10. CFPB, [Consumer Credit Card Market Report, December 2025](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-credit-card-market-report_2025-12.pdf), printed page 51, Figure 29 and accompanying discussion. The 1.35-point increase uses G.19 interest-assessed card rates minus H.15 prime. The CFPB figure uses a different sample. ↩
11. Federal Reserve, [Open Market Operations policy history](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), 2015–18 and 2022–23 decisions; FRED DFEDTARU. December 2015 and March 2022 first-hike months. Month-end upper-target changes supply the denominator; using the midpoint gives the same changes over these endpoints. ↩
12. FDIC, [September 18, 2023 national rates](https://www.fdic.gov/national-rates-and-rate-caps/national-rates-and-rate-caps-26), Savings row and prior-month-end methodology; [prior rates](https://www.fdic.gov/national-rates-and-rate-caps/national-rates-and-rate-caps-previous-rates). FRED [SNDR](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SNDR), March 2022 / September 2023 publications; [SAVNRNJ](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAVNRNJ), prior-rule weekly series. RATE_SAV_NEW/RATE_SAV_OLD. Current 0.38% observation is the October 2026 publication, using September month-end information. ↩
13. SEC, [September 2026 Money Market Fund Statistics supporting data](https://www.sec.gov/files/investment/mmf-statistics-supporting-data-09-2026.xlsx), Tab.4.3H and Tab.4.3, Fund Type Government; net seven-day yield from Form N-MFP B.8 weighted by B.4 assets. Current-vintage history can differ from an earlier release. RATE_MMF. ↩
14. Federal Reserve H.15, [TB3MS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB3MS), monthly three-month bill discount yields. RATE_TB3MS. ↩
15. [FFIEC CDR bulk data](https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/PWS/DownloadBulkData.aspx), original quarterly Schedule RI, RCK and POR records identified by CERT/RSSD in the raw CSV and archive manifest. [FDIC June 2026 asset-ranked universe](https://api.fdic.gov/banks/financials?filters=REPDTE%3A20260630&fields=NAME,CERT,REPDTE,ASSET,BKCLASS,RSSDID&sort_by=ASSET&sort_order=DESC&limit=25&format=json). BANK_RI/BANK_RCK/BANK_POR/BANK_UNIVERSE. `Bank summary!A5:L36` and pooled rows 42–61. Supplemental comparators were selected from large online deposit providers, not an official exhaustive category. ↩
16. FFIEC, [031/041 Instructions, March 2025](https://www.ffiec.gov/sites/default/files/data/reporting-forms/FFIEC031_FFIEC041_202503_i.pdf), RI-8/8a and RC-K-1/5; RIAD0093 and RCONB563. The source register gives the issuer copies, PDF pages and URLs for JPMorgan, Bank of America and U.S. Bank. The baseline follows bank charters, with acquisitions and the SoFi business change disclosed. ↩
17. [Excel model](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/fed-rate-hike-model.xlsx), Assumptions, Household calc and Outputs. Household annual effect = balance × repricing share × rate-change response × shock. First-year effect multiplies by the fraction of the year after an assumed lag. PMT and FV calculate amortizing-loan payment, remaining principal and first-year interest. Illustrative balances and quote shocks are assumptions, not observed household facts or forecasts. ↩
18. Federal Reserve, [2025 SCF current survey](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm); [public extract ZIP](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/files/scfp2025excel.zip); [variable-definition macro](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/files/bulletin.macro.txt); [published public-data tables](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/files/scf2025_tables_public_real_historical.xlsx). CCBAL, HELOC, VEH_INST, SAVING, MMDA, INCOME and WGT. Household calc rows 31–90. Weighted pooled means, all five implicates, zero balances included; no scaling to NY Fed aggregates. ↩
19. New York Fed, [November 10, 2026 release](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261110), Q3 category table; [Q3 PDF](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/hhdc_2026q3.pdf), opening summary and mortgage footnote; [source XLSX](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/xls/hhd_c_report_2026q3.xlsx), total debt composition; [FAQ](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/faq), card transactors versus revolvers. Debt inputs and Checks retain raw precision for all 95 quarters. Printed category changes do not sum exactly after rounding; no input was forced to reconcile a rounded presentation. ↩
20. Freddie Mac, [PMMS](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), November 12, 2026 weekly 30-year observation and prior-Thursday-through-Wednesday definition; FRED [MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US), methodology note; Federal Reserve [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), November 9, 2026. [U.S. Treasury daily par yields](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202611), November 10 row and 10-year column. `Outputs!B23:B25`. Historical monthly rate-minus-yield calculations: Rate calc rows 111–264. ↩
21. Fannie Mae, [What Determines the Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage?](https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/rate-30-year-mortgage), December 11, 2024, Mortgage Spread section and footnotes; Boston Fed, [Why Mortgage Rates Exceed Treasury Yields](https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2026/why-mortgage-rates-exceed-treasury-yields), May 19, 2026, benchmark and prepayment sections. CM007/CM008. ↩
22. CFPB, [auto interest-rate explanation](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/can-i-negotiate-the-interest-rate-on-an-auto-loan-with-the-dealer-en-795/), Types of Auto Loans; [fixed versus adjustable mortgage](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fixed-rate-and-adjustable-rate-mortgage-arm-loan-en-100/), main answer. CM005/CM006. ↩
23. FDIC [Financials API](https://api.fdic.gov/banks/financials), NIMYQ, NIMQ and ERNAST2; [All Financial Reports definitions](https://api.fdic.gov/banks/docs/All%20Financial%20Reports.xlsx), Reference-Variables&Definitions rows 533 and 1260. BANK_NIM/BANK_NIM_DEFS. Ratios pool numerators and denominators across the fixed 25-bank cohort; they are not the full banking industry’s QBP margin. ↩

## Supporting material

- [Excel model (XLSX file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/fed-rate-hike-model.xlsx)Sourced inputs, live calculations and reported outputs.
- [Source and model data (CSV collection) (ZIP file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-data.zip)Data tables, source references and calculation exports.
- [Source register (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/source-register.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Cycle results (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/cycle-results.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Bank pass through results (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/bank-pass-through-results.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Calculator defaults (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/calculator-defaults.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Calculator default results (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/fed-rate-hike-households/calculator-default-results.csv)Download as CSV.

[Sulayman Bowles](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about) studies finance at UT Austin and writes about software, AI systems, and markets.

[Biography](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about)[Writing feed](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/feed.xml)

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Source: https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/financial-systems/fed-rate-hike-households · Sulayman Bowles