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# Rent vs. buy calculator for 50 metros

Renting leads at ten years in 49 metros under the base assumptions. Compare the effects of price, rent and mortgage rates.

[Sulayman Bowles](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about)

Nov 12, 202623 min read6 figures5 tables22 sources

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## The short version

1. With 1% annual home-price growth in the base case, renting stays ahead for ten years in 49 of 50 metros; buying’s median break-even with 20% down is 20.7 years.
2. In Austin, September 2026 single-family rent is 42.5% above the all-property series, and using it cuts the modeled renter’s ten-year advantage from $262,836 to $143,273.
3. A one-point lower mortgage rate, 6.11%, cuts the median break-even to 14.0 years; raising home growth from 1% to 3% cuts it to 8.0 years.
4. At 2026 Q2, 49.1% of outstanding mortgages carried rates below 4%, against a 7.11% new-loan benchmark.

At November 12, 2026 inputs, renting stays ahead for ten years in **49 of 50 metros** in this report’s base scenario. With 20% down, buying’s median break-even is **20.7 years**. That result assumes 1% annual home-price growth, 3% rent growth and a 5% after-tax return on invested savings.1

**The scenario assumes near-flat prices throughout the 30-year window.** It uses a **7.11%** mortgage, September 2026 single-family prices and rents, historical tax and insurance proxies, and sale costs. The main table excludes homeowner income-tax benefits and taxes on sale; an optional workbook illustration makes that treatment explicit. Fourteen metros do not cross within the 30-year calculation window. A different long-term price assumption produces a very different answer.2, 3, 5, 6, 1

Download the [Excel model](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/buy-or-rent-50-metros-model.xlsx) or [metro results](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/metro-results-50.csv).

Rent versus buy calculator

MetroHome value, $Monthly rent, $Down payment, %Annual mortgage rate, %Years in the home

**Metro cost assumptions**

Ownership and rent inputs

| Input | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Mortgage term | 30 years |
| Annual property tax | 1.3% |
| Annual home insurance | $3,489.00 |
| Annual maintenance | 1% |
| Monthly HOA dues | $0.00 |
| Annual renters insurance | $240.00 |
| Refundable deposit | 1 months of rent |
| Annual mortgage insurance rate | 0.5% |
| Purchase and sale costs | 3% and 6% |
| Annual home and rent growth | 1% and 3% |
| Annual operating cost growth | 3% |
| Opportunity rate | 5% |

Estimated costs in present dollars

| Measure | Value |
| --- | --- |
| First month buying costs less or the same | Beyond the selected horizon |
| Monthly mortgage principal and interest | $2,266.13 |
| Buying cost after sale | $672,446.94 |
| Renting cost | $621,695.34 |

The comparison discounts both cost streams to today. The buying cost subtracts sale proceeds after mortgage payoff and selling costs. The rent deposit is refunded at the end of the comparison.

Break-even in the 50 metro presets

Search by metroSort by

Break-even in the 50 metro presets

| Population rank | Metro | Home value ($) | Monthly rent ($) | 5% down (years) | 10% down (years) | 20% down (years) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | New York | 754974 | 3464 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Los Angeles | 1011637 | 4420 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Chicago | 375345 | 2536 | 20.2 | 18.9 | 15.1 |
| 4 | Dallas | 360905 | 2345 | 26 | 24.6 | 20.3 |
| 5 | Houston | 306504 | 2220 | 18.6 | 17.3 | 13.4 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 382850 | 2275 | 23.7 | 22.2 | 17.9 |
| 7 | Washington | 614575 | 3211 | — | — | 27.3 |
| 8 | Miami | 569393 | 3433 | 22.8 | 21.4 | 17.1 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 395847 | 2292 | 28 | 26.6 | 22.3 |
| 10 | Phoenix | 451327 | 2302 | — | 28.8 | 24.2 |
| 11 | Boston | 765122 | 3500 | — | — | — |
| 12 | Riverside | 590772 | 3147 | — | 29.6 | 25.1 |
| 13 | San Francisco | 1211830 | 4222 | — | — | — |
| 14 | Detroit | 263621 | 1673 | 20.8 | 19.4 | 15.4 |
| 15 | Seattle | 752812 | 3435 | — | — | — |
| 16 | Minneapolis | 400231 | 2443 | 24 | 22.6 | 18.3 |
| 17 | Tampa | 372992 | 2390 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 14.6 |
| 18 | San Diego | 1001000 | 4121 | — | — | — |
| 19 | Denver | 580862 | 2930 | — | — | — |
| 20 | Orlando | 399821 | 2434 | 23.6 | 22.2 | 17.8 |
| 21 | Charlotte | 385306 | 2189 | 25.6 | 24.1 | 19.7 |
| 22 | Baltimore | 408802 | 2504 | 21.1 | 19.8 | 15.6 |
| 23 | San Antonio | 275261 | 1820 | 26.8 | 25.4 | 21.1 |
| 24 | St. Louis | 279282 | 1689 | 25.5 | 24.2 | 19.8 |
| 25 | Austin | 421084 | 2285 | — | — | — |

1–25 of 50

The 50 metros use September 2026 single-family price and rent observations. A blank break-even result means no crossing within 30 years. This table uses the published assumptions for every metro.

## How long do you need to stay for buying to beat renting?

In this scenario, the first crossing ranges from **7 years 8 months in Pittsburgh** to no crossing within 30 years. Houston crosses at **13.4 years**, Dallas at **20.3**, and San Antonio at **21.1**; Austin does not cross within the modeled period.1

Break-even means the buyer’s wealth after selling the home, paying selling expenses and repaying the mortgage first exceeds the renter’s wealth. The renter keeps the cash that buying would have consumed and invests differences in monthly spending. The calculation also credits the buyer with invested savings whenever owning later becomes cheaper. Principal reduces the debt deducted from the eventual sale proceeds.

Only Pittsburgh breaks even in under ten years; 14 of 50 metros never do within 30

Years until buying first leads renting after sale costs, 50 largest metros, 20% down, 1% home growth, 3% rent growth, 5% after-tax alternative return, 7.11% mortgage, model as of Nov 12, 2026

Zillow Sep 2026 single-family ZHVI/ZORI; 2025 ACS; NAIC 2023 and TDI 2025 insurance; Freddie Mac Nov 12, 2026. Author calculations. Texas metros in blue.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/metro-results-50.csv)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/01-break-even-50-metros.png)

**Numbers and method**

| Years | Years to break even (20% down) |
| --- | --- |
| Pittsburgh | 7.7 |
| Memphis | 11.4 |
| Indianapolis | 11.9 |
| Cincinnati | 13.0 |
| Cleveland | 13.2 |
| Houston | 13.4 |
| Tampa | 14.6 |
| Virginia Beach | 14.8 |
| Chicago | 15.1 |
| Detroit | 15.4 |
| Baltimore | 15.6 |
| Birmingham | 16.2 |
| Grand Rapids | 16.5 |
| Miami | 17.1 |
| Louisville | 17.2 |
| Orlando | 17.8 |
| Atlanta | 17.9 |
| Fresno | 17.9 |
| Minneapolis | 18.3 |
| Oklahoma City | 18.6 |
| Richmond | 19.6 |
| Charlotte | 19.7 |
| Columbus | 19.7 |
| St. Louis | 19.8 |
| Dallas | 20.3 |
| San Antonio | 21.1 |
| Philadelphia | 22.3 |
| Providence | 23.0 |
| Hartford | 23.2 |
| Jacksonville | 24.0 |
| Phoenix | 24.2 |
| Nashville | 24.6 |
| Riverside | 25.1 |
| Las Vegas | 25.5 |
| Washington | 27.3 |
| Kansas City | 28.8 |
| New York | 30+ |
| Los Angeles | 30+ |
| Boston | 30+ |
| San Francisco | 30+ |
| Seattle | 30+ |
| San Diego | 30+ |
| Denver | 30+ |
| Austin | 30+ |
| Portland | 30+ |
| Sacramento | 30+ |
| San Jose | 30+ |
| Raleigh | 30+ |
| Milwaukee | 30+ |
| Salt Lake City | 30+ |

Sources: Zillow September 2026 single-family ZHVI/ZORI; 2025 ACS; NAIC 2023 and TDI 2025 insurance; Freddie Mac November 12, 2026. Author calculations. Each “>30” means no crossing in the 30 years modeled.

The median gives each metro one observation. The ordering includes all 50 metros, including the 14 with no crossing within the window. Its two middle observations are Dallas and San Antonio. Break-even years are shown to one decimal for comparison, not as precise costs for any one home.

The universe is the **50 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the 50 states and District of Columbia by 2025 ACS population**, excluding Puerto Rico. That differs from Zillow’s older size ranking: Fresno and Grand Rapids are included, while Buffalo and New Orleans are outside this top 50.5

## Are mortgage rates expected to go down in 2027?

The original forecasts disagree: Fannie Mae’s October forecast has a **7.5% annual average**, MBA has **7.2% in the first three quarters and 7.1% in the fourth**, and Goldman Sachs describes a **6.4% level in 2027**. A borrower’s rate depends on the loan and lender.7, 8, 9

Fannie Mae’s September 11 forecast put the 2027 annual average at **6.7%**; the October 12 version raised it by **0.8 percentage point**. Its rate assumptions were dated September 30. The newer observed Freddie Mac weekly average is **7.11% on November 12**, down from **7.18% on November 5**. The calculator starts with the observed rate, while the forecasts inform the range of scenarios.7, 2

| Institution and original publication | Rate outlook | Price outlook and precise horizon |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Fannie Mae, October 12, 2026 | 7.5% average in 2027 | Fannie Mae HPI +0.6%, 2027 Q4 over 2026 Q4 |
| MBA, October 11, 2026 | 7.2% in Q1–Q3; 7.1% in Q4 2027 | FHFA purchase-only HPI +0.5%, Q4/Q4 |
| Goldman Sachs, October 30, 2026 | 6.4% in 2027; public article does not specify annual average versus quarter | National prices +0.8%, December/December; exact index not identified in public article |
| Zillow, live forecast CSV retrieved November 12; base September 30, 2026 | November 4 commentary says above 7% through mid-2027; no precise annual point estimate | ZHVI +1.1% over the 12 months ending September 2027 |
| NAR, November 6, 2026 outlook | Numerical 2027 forecast not found in the inspected original release | Numerical 2027 forecast not found; December 16 summit is a future update event |

The **0.5%–1.1%** range spans different price indexes and endpoints. NAR’s November 6 outlook omits a comparable 2027 figure.10

NAR’s November 12 release puts **October existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million**. The annual rate expresses the pace implied by that month’s sales.11

## What does a rent vs buy calculator need to include?

It needs the entire ownership cost and the value of keeping cash available for investment. Comparing rent with principal and interest alone misses property tax, insurance, maintenance and the substantial cost of entering and leaving a home.12

| Input | Base setting | What changes the result |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mortgage | Observed 7.11%; 30-year fixed | Quoted note rate, points, loan size and credit profile |
| Down payment | 5%, 10% and 20% cases | Cash at closing, interest and PMI |
| Home-price appreciation | Assumed 1% nominal per year for the full holding period | 0% and 3% paths in the sensitivity analysis |
| Rent growth | Assumed 3% per year, raised on annual anniversaries | 0% and 6% annual paths |
| Alternative investment return | Assumed 5% per year after tax, compounded monthly | 3% and 7% alternatives; no guaranteed return implied |
| Purchase and sale costs | Assumed 3% of purchase price and 6% of sale value | Contracts, negotiated charges and local transfer taxes |
| Maintenance | Initially 1% of purchase price per year | Property condition; expense rises 3% on anniversaries |
| Property tax | 2025 ACS aggregate taxes divided by aggregate owner-occupied value | Reassessment, exemptions and the property address |
| Home insurance | Historical principal-city state average; newer TDI statewide value for Texas | Quote, rebuilding cost, deductible, flood and wind coverage |
| Renter insurance | Assumed $240 initially per year, rising 3% on anniversaries | Quoted premium |
| Private mortgage insurance | Assumed 0.50% of original loan per year below 20% down | Borrower quote; scheduled termination at 78% original loan-to-value |
| HOA and deposit | $0 HOA in detached-home presets; one month refundable rent deposit | Property-specific dues; deposit terms |

Freddie Mac describes typical purchase closing costs as **2%–5%**. The model uses 3%, which covers transaction costs and excludes prepaid amounts already counted in recurring expenses. Selling costs default to 6% and are adjustable. PMI stands for private mortgage insurance, which protects the lender. The model assumes a current, non-high-risk conventional loan and automatic termination when the scheduled balance reaches 78% of original value or the loan passes its midpoint.13, 14

Insurance and maintenance grow on annual anniversaries, as does renter insurance. Property taxes rise on annual anniversaries at the assumed annual home-price growth rate—1% in the base case. House value and investment returns accrue at monthly equivalents of their annual rates. The workbook and calculator use the same timing convention, because different cash-flow timing produces different horizons. Utilities and ordinary moving costs are excluded as assumed equal between alternatives; unequal utilities, renovations, special assessments and catastrophe policies require additional inputs.

## Is renting the same kind of home really cheaper?

Matching property type narrows the comparison, but no metro index rents and prices exactly the same homes. This report pairs **single-family ZHVI with single-family ZORI** in all 50 metros instead of comparing a detached house with the typical apartment-inclusive rental.3, 4

ZHVI is Zillow’s home-value measure, and ZORI is its rent measure. Zillow describes ZORI as measuring “changes in asking rents over time.” Repeated observations control for changes in the quality of the listed rental stock. Individual homes can still differ by neighborhood, size, condition and school access.4

Austin illustrates the stakes. September 2026 single-family ZORI is **$2,285 a month**, compared with **$1,603** for the all-property series: the single-family measure is **42.5% higher**. Keeping the house price and every other assumption fixed, substituting the cheaper broad rent series expands the modeled renter’s ten-year advantage from **$143,273 to $262,836**, which shows how much the choice of rental stock matters.1, 3

The direction is not guaranteed in every metro. Rental stock can also be newer, better located or more expensive than the owner stock. The closest household comparison is a specific home’s purchase terms and a credible rental alternative with the same characteristics. The presets are starting points for that comparison.

## What change in rates or prices would flip the answer?

At ten years, the table changes either the entry price or the initial mortgage rate until the two options tie. Each calculation uses 20% down and holds the other base inputs fixed.1

| Metro | September 2026 SF value | Entry price at ten-year equality | Change from starting value | Mortgage rate at equality, price unchanged |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pittsburgh | $226,389 | $239,208 | +5.7% | 7.77% |
| Houston | $306,504 | $288,999 | -5.7% | 6.42% |
| Chicago | $375,345 | $346,168 | -7.8% | 6.14% |
| Dallas | $360,905 | $310,656 | -13.9% | 5.44% |
| San Antonio | $275,261 | $234,747 | -14.7% | 5.36% |
| Austin | $421,084 | $299,663 | -28.8% | 3.55% |
| San Francisco | $1,211,830 | $651,284 | -46.3% | 1.61% |
| San Jose | $1,669,431 | $749,055 | -55.1% | 0.50% |

Pittsburgh already favors buying by ten years, so its threshold price is above the starting value. Austin needs about **28.8% less purchase price** or an initial **3.55% mortgage** under the other stated assumptions. A combination of a lower price and lower rate would require smaller changes in each. A lower entry price also lowers the mortgage, down payment, purchase fees and the modeled property-tax and maintenance bases. A later price decline instead reduces the resale value of the existing purchase.

Across the full sample, reducing mortgage rates by one percentage point to **6.11%** lowers the median horizon to **14.0 years**. A ten-percent lower entry price lowers it to **12.8 years**. Increasing annual home appreciation from 1% to 3%, without changing the mortgage, lowers it to **8.0 years**. The assumed decades-long appreciation path carries more of this result than a small difference among one-year forecasts.1

Changing one assumption moves the median break-even across 50 metros from 8 to 28 years

Median first break-even across 50 metros, years; 20% down, one input changed at a time from the base case

Author monthly wealth model, Nov 12, 2026 input vintage; Sep 2026 Zillow values and rents. Conditional scenarios, not forecasts. Base: home growth 1%, rent growth 3%, alternative return 5% after tax.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/sensitivity-summary.csv)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/02-sensitivity-share.png)

**Numbers and method**

| Years | Median break-even |
| --- | --- |
| Mortgage 6.11% | 14.0 |
| Base: mortgage 7.11% | 20.7 |
| Mortgage 8.11% | 27.7 |
| Purchase price 10% lower | 12.8 |
| Rent grows 6% a year | 10.3 |
| Home value grows 3% a year | 8.0 |
| Alternative return 3% after tax | 14.5 |

Source: author calculations, November 12, 2026 input vintage. One assumption changes at a time. Source values and live formula schedules accompany the figure.

| Change from the base | Median break-even | Metros crossing within ten years | No crossing within 30 years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | 20.7 years | 1 | 14 |
| Mortgage 6.11% | 14.0 years | 10 | 10 |
| Mortgage 8.11% | 27.7 years | 0 | 22 |
| Entry price 10% lower | 12.8 years | 13 | 8 |
| Entry price 10% higher | Not point-identified; 25 results exceed 30 years | 0 | 25 |
| Rent growth 0% | >30 years | 0 | 50 |
| Rent growth 6% | 10.3 years | 20 | 1 |
| Home growth 3% | 8.0 years | 34 | 5 |
| Alternative return 3% after tax | 14.5 years | 6 | 4 |

“Three percentage points of rent-growth sensitivity” means moving the assumed annual growth rate from 3% to 0% or 6%. It does not mean raising today’s rent once by 3%. The higher-entry-price median cannot be computed by replacing each missing horizon with 31 years; that would create a false point estimate.

The combined cases show the range: a **shorter-break-even case** with a 6.11% mortgage, 3% home growth and 6% rent growth has a **4.3-year median**. The base has 20.7 years. A **longer-break-even case** with an 8.11% mortgage and no home-price or rent growth has no crossing in any metro within 30 years. The alternative return remains 5% after tax in all three. These cases bracket economic assumptions; they are not assigned probabilities.1

## Why do Texas taxes and insurance need a closer look?

The Texas presets show the importance of costs beyond the mortgage. Austin’s first-month owner outlay is **$3,376**, compared with **$2,305 for single-family rent plus renter insurance**, under the base assumptions.1

For the Austin example, principal and interest are **$2,266 a month**, modeled property tax **$468**, homeowners insurance **$291**, and maintenance **$351**. The initial **$96,849** buyer cash requirement includes a 20% down payment and 3% purchase costs on a **$421,084** home. After ten years, modeled net sale equity is **$147,413**. The renter-minus-buyer invested savings balance plus the returned deposit is **$290,686**, yielding the **$143,273** renter advantage. This credits amortization and avoids counting the down payment twice.1

In Austin, owning costs $3,376 in the first month against $2,305 for rent; in San Antonio, $2,272 against $1,840

First-month cash outlay for buying (20% down, 7.11% mortgage) and for single-family rent plus renter insurance, USD per month; principal builds equity

- Interest
- Principal
- Property tax
- Insurance
- Maintenance
- SF rent + renter insurance

Zillow Sep 2026 SF indexes; ACS 2025 tax ratios; TDI 2025 statewide premium; Freddie Mac Nov 12 rate; maintenance (1% of price a year) and renter insurance ($240 a year) are assumptions. The renter bar includes $20 a month of renter insurance. Components are rounded to whole dollars.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/03-texas-monthly-costs.png)

**Numbers and method**

| USD per month | Interest | Principal | Property tax | Insurance | Maintenance | SF rent + renter insurance |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Austin buy | $1,996 | $270 | $468 | $291 | $351 | — |
| Austin rent | — | — | — | — | — | $2,305 |
| Dallas buy | $1,711 | $232 | $384 | $291 | $301 | — |
| Dallas rent | — | — | — | — | — | $2,365 |
| Houston buy | $1,453 | $197 | $349 | $291 | $255 | — |
| Houston rent | — | — | — | — | — | $2,240 |
| San Antonio buy | $1,305 | $177 | $270 | $291 | $229 | — |
| San Antonio rent | — | — | — | — | — | $1,840 |

Sources: September 2026 Zillow SF indexes, 2025 ACS tax ratios, TDI’s 2025 statewide premium, Freddie Mac November 12 rate; stated maintenance and renter-insurance assumptions. Principal is a cash payment that builds equity.

TDI’s **2025 statewide annual homeowners premium is $3,489**. Its county observations show substantial local differences. Those averages are more current than the **2023 NAIC state premiums, published in July 2026**, used outside Texas. A historical state average is not a current quote.15, 6

| Example area | Calculated 2026 tax on a hypothetical $400,000 general-homestead home | Observed 2025 county insurance premium, with wind | Average insured coverage in county sample |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Austin / Austin ISD; Travis County | $6,314 | $3,245 | $557,000 |
| Dallas / Dallas ISD; Dallas County | $6,140 | $4,363 | $512,000 |
| Houston / Houston ISD; Harris County | $5,669 | $4,144 | $463,000 |
| San Antonio / San Antonio ISD; Bexar County | $7,323 | $2,806 | $398,000 |

The tax examples use adopted rates and jurisdiction-specific exemptions, including the **$140,000 school homestead exemption**. They assume an eligible general homestead, no senior/disability exemption, no assessment cap or tax ceiling, and no extra MUD/PID charge. Taxable values differ across jurisdictions, so simply adding nominal rates and applying them to the full value would be wrong.16

The tax amounts are hypothetical bills for the specified jurisdictions. The insurance amounts are county averages across policies with differing insured values. The ACS ratio used in the main comparison describes existing owners; assessment resets and exemptions can make a new buyer’s bill materially different. The workbook therefore allows a property-specific tax and insurance override.

NAIC itself warns that “Average premium is an imperfect measure of the relative ‘price’ of insurance.” Coverage, deductibles, hazards and rebuilding costs vary; insured rebuilding cost excludes land value. Flood or earthquake coverage can be additional.6

[Where the Texas home insurance premium goes](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/texas/texas-home-insurance-premium-breakdown) traces insurer costs. [Underwriting a West Campus tower](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/texas/west-campus-tower-underwriting) covers a different rental market, with leases priced by the bed.

## Mortgage interest and property-tax deductions

The benefit depends on the **additional deduction compared with renting**. The workbook provides a simplified federal illustration for one household. The main table excludes these tax effects.17

For a new acquisition mortgage, current law generally limits deductible interest to debt of **$750,000**, or **$375,000 for married couples filing individual returns**. The **2027 standard deduction is $33,200 for married filing jointly and $16,600 for single filers**. The 2027 state-and-local-tax deduction cap is **$40,804** before its income phaseout, which starts at **$510,050 of modified adjusted gross income** for the main filing categories. The cap returns to **$10,000 in 2030** under current law. A multi-decade model cannot preserve the temporary higher cap forever.17

The illustration assumes a married couple with **$200,000 AGI**, a constant **22% marginal rate**, **$6,000 of other state/local taxes**, no charitable gifts and a qualifying residence. It compares the larger of the standard deduction or eligible itemized deductions in each alternative. The illustration assumes 2.5% future standard-deduction growth and calculates the incremental effect of deductions.

Mortgage-insurance deductibility resumes in tax years after 2025 under current law, but the income phaseout eliminates it for this $200,000-AGI example. A qualifying home sale may receive a **$250,000 gain exclusion, or $500,000 for qualifying joint filers**, subject to ownership/use and other statutory tests. The optional module uses the ordinary marginal-rate assumption for gains within one year, a stated 15% long-term rate thereafter, and possible net-investment-income tax. Additional eligible basis defaults to zero and must be supplied for a household example; tax savings enter at year-end. Larger gains, other income, basis adjustments and eligibility can change the tax result. The main comparison excludes these household-dependent effects.17

## Are home prices expensive compared with rents historically?

Each metro can be compared with its own history from **January 2015 through September 2026**. The dataset has **7,049 matched metro-months**, with a gap for San Jose in September 2022.18

The dollar multiple divides single-family ZHVI by twelve times single-family ZORI. It answers how many years of current annual rent equal the indexed home value, before expenses and financing. It does not identify an economically correct or “fair” price. A high multiple can reflect different expected growth, land constraints, property composition or amenities as well as a larger financial cost of ownership.

Price-to-rent ratios have risen since 2015 in eight of nine metros shown, most in San Jose (23.2 to 29.1)

Single-family home value divided by 12 months of single-family rent, December 2015 to September 2026

- December 2015
- September 2026

Zillow single-family ZHVI and ZORI, current vintage retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Different homes; not fair value. Pittsburgh is the only metro where the ratio fell, from 11.50 to 11.37.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/04-price-rent-history.png)

**Numbers and method**

| Price-to-annual-rent ratio | December 2015 | September 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Pittsburgh | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| Chicago | 11.8 | 12.3 |
| Houston | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| Dallas | 11.3 | 12.8 |
| San Antonio | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Austin | 14.6 | 15.4 |
| Seattle | 15.9 | 18.3 |
| San Francisco | 22.7 | 23.9 |
| San Jose | 23.2 | 29.1 |

Source: Zillow current-vintage SF series retrieved November 12, 2026. This figure shows December 2015 and September 2026; the CSV includes monthly observations and revised historical values.

For a longer view, **14 metros** have usable FHFA whole-metro house-price series and BLS rent histories back to **2000 Q1**. At **2026 Q2**, Dallas’s relative price/rent index is **144.6** and Houston’s is **147.8**, with 2000 Q1 set to 100. The price index relative to the rent index is therefore roughly 45% and 48% above its 2000 relationship, respectively. The ratio tracks relative growth from a common index base.19

The longer series uses different source definitions. FHFA describes financed single-family values; BLS rent covers a broader occupied rental stock and continuing leases. Geographic boundaries can differ. Austin and San Antonio lack their own usable BLS rent series back to 2000. October 2025 CPI is missing following the lapse in appropriations, so that quarter’s rent average uses two observed months and is labeled accordingly; no missing month is interpolated.19

## How many owners are locked into lower mortgage rates?

At **2026 Q2**, **49.1%** of outstanding mortgages in the FHFA count-weighted series had origination rates below 4%, and **65.6%** had rates below 5%. About **78%** were below 6%, materially below the current 7.11% new-loan benchmark.20, 2

Mortgages below 4% fell from 65.2% of outstanding loans in 2022 to 49.1% in mid-2026, but still make up half

Share of outstanding first-lien closed-end mortgages by contract rate at origination, % of loan count, 2019 Q1 to 2026 Q2

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FHFA NMDB outstanding mortgage statistics, national, count-weighted, released Sep 30, 2026. Counts outstanding first-lien mortgages, not all homeowners.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/05-mortgage-lock-in.png)

**Numbers and method**

| % of outstanding mortgage count | Below 4% | Below 5% | Below 6% (complement) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2019Q1 | 35.0% | 74.2% | 87.6% |
| 2019Q2 | 34.6% | 74.8% | 88.0% |
| 2019Q3 | 35.7% | 75.7% | 88.5% |
| 2019Q4 | 37.4% | 76.6% | 88.9% |
| 2020Q1 | 39.6% | 77.6% | 89.3% |
| 2020Q2 | 43.5% | 78.7% | 89.7% |
| 2020Q3 | 47.6% | 79.8% | 90.1% |
| 2020Q4 | 51.8% | 80.9% | 90.5% |
| 2021Q1 | 55.8% | 82.0% | 90.9% |
| 2021Q2 | 59.0% | 83.0% | 91.4% |
| 2021Q3 | 61.8% | 84.0% | 91.8% |
| 2021Q4 | 64.2% | 84.9% | 92.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 65.2% | 85.5% | 92.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 64.2% | 84.8% | 92.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 62.8% | 83.4% | 92.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 61.8% | 82.1% | 91.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 60.9% | 80.9% | 90.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 59.7% | 79.4% | 89.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 58.6% | 77.9% | 87.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 57.7% | 76.7% | 86.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 56.9% | 75.6% | 85.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 55.8% | 74.2% | 84.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 54.8% | 72.9% | 82.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 53.9% | 71.8% | 82.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 53.1% | 70.7% | 81.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 52.1% | 69.5% | 79.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 51.0% | 68.1% | 78.6% |
| 2025Q4 | 50.1% | 67.0% | 78.1% |
| 2026Q1 | 49.4% | 66.0% | 77.8% |
| 2026Q2 | 49.1% | 65.6% | 77.5% |

Source: FHFA NMDB outstanding mortgage statistics, released September 30, 2026. National first-lien closed-end mortgage counts; contract rate at origination.

The below-4% share was **65.2% in 2022 Q1** and **52.1% in 2025 Q2**. The incentive to keep a low-rate mortgage is shrinking but remains substantial. It can restrain both listings and purchases because many sellers would become buyers of another home. The price effect also depends on demand, supply and borrowing costs.

The series counts outstanding mortgages. The field is the **contract rate at origination**, which can differ from an adjustable-rate mortgage’s reset coupon. The latest five rounded bins total **100.1%**. Summing the four sub-6% bins gives **77.6%**, while subtracting the 6%-plus bin from 100 gives **77.5%**. Rounding accounts for the 0.1-point difference.20

## How accurate were last year’s forecasts?

Completed quarters show that Fannie Mae and MBA underestimated the mortgage-rate rise by the third quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae’s October 2025 forecast had **6.0%** for 2026 Q3, and MBA had **6.4%**, against a realized Freddie Mac weekly-release average of **6.679%**.21

Year-ahead rate forecasts missed the 2026 rise: Fannie Mae was 0.68 points too low by Q3

Actual minus forecast 30-year mortgage rate, percentage points, completed 2026 quarters; positive means rates were higher than forecast

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Fannie Mae Oct 13, 2025 and MBA Oct 19, 2025 original forecasts; Freddie Mac weekly PMMS, retrieved Nov 12, 2026. Actual is the arithmetic mean of weekly PMMS releases in each quarter.[Data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-data.zip)[Image](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/06-forecast-errors.png)

**Numbers and method**

| Percentage points | Fannie Mae October 2025 forecast | MBA October 2025 forecast |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 Q1 | −0.09 | −0.29 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0.41 | 0.01 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0.68 | 0.28 |

Sources: original October 2025 Fannie Mae and MBA tables; Freddie Mac weekly PMMS. Observed minus forecast, completed quarters only, retrieved November 12, 2026.

The misses were **+0.679 percentage point for Fannie Mae** and **+0.279 for MBA**. Earlier quarters were closer: MBA’s 2026 Q2 call of 6.4% was near the realized **6.415%**. The forecast errors motivate a range of starting rates in the sensitivity analysis.

The 2026 annual outcomes for the older NAR and Zillow forecasts are not complete as of November 12, and October sales at an annualized pace are not substituted for the realized calendar year. I could not locate a comparable numerical 2026 Goldman Sachs forecast in the freely accessible 2025 original article and archive, so that gap stays unknown. No forecast is scored against a different price index just to produce an error statistic.21

## Can you refinance if rates fall—and what if prices fall?

A refinance can replace a mortgage rate after purchase, subject to a new loan’s costs and eligibility. It cannot change the price already paid for the house, so the two risks differ, and refinancing is neither free nor guaranteed.22

Lower rates can reduce future interest without undoing earlier interest or transaction costs. Approval can depend on income, credit, appraisal and equity; falling house prices can make the equity test harder. Resetting to another 30-year term can also lower the payment while extending the repayment period. The base model assumes no refinance because its timing, price and eligibility are unknown.

A price decline does not generally change the scheduled principal owed. For an explicitly hypothetical **$400,000 purchase with $80,000 down and a $320,000 mortgage**, an immediate ten-percent price decline leaves **$40,000 of equity before selling costs**, ignoring amortization. The market might later recover, but refinancing does not reset the purchase basis. Conversely, someone who buys after the same decline begins with a smaller price and loan. The entry-price sensitivity in the workbook models buying after the decline.1

## What evidence would change the answer?

The strongest changes would be a different long-term price path, a materially lower mortgage quote, or a higher equivalent-home rent. Current tax and insurance bills could also overturn a close local result, especially where the source averages understate a new buyer’s costs.

The median falls from 20.7 to 8.0 years when uniform appreciation rises from 1% to 3%; that is why a 2027 price forecast alone offers limited information about a 20-year break-even horizon. A one-year forecast frames only the first year; later years remain a household planning assumption. Comparable rental observations, verified transaction costs, address-specific tax assessments and insurance quotes would improve the presets more than another general claim about a housing crash.

**Next update: December 12, 2026.** An earlier refresh follows a new Zillow monthly price/rent vintage, a material Freddie Mac rate change, or a source revision. The next FHFA quarterly HPI release is **November 24, 2026**; NAR’s **December 16, 2026** forecast summit is another update event.19, 10

## Frequently asked questions

### What was the median rent versus buy break-even?

The unweighted 50-metro median was 20.7 years at 20% down. The base scenario assumes a 7.11% mortgage, 1% annual home appreciation, 3% rent growth and a 5% after-tax investment return. Fourteen metros have no crossing within 30 years.1, 3

### Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Austin?

Renting leads throughout Austin’s 30-year base scenario. At a ten-year hold and 20% down, the two options tie at an entry price near $299,663 with the base rate, or at a 3.55% mortgage with the September 2026 price.1, 3

### What happens if mortgage rates fall by one percentage point?

Starting at 6.11% instead of 7.11% lowers the median break-even from 20.7 to 14.0 years. Ten metros cross within ten years under that scenario.1, 3

### Why compare single-family rent with single-family home values?

The two series cover a closer match in property type. In Austin, September 2026 single-family rent was 42.5% above the broader rent index. Individual homes can differ in size, location and condition.1, 3

### Can refinancing help if home prices fall?

A refinance can reduce future borrowing costs if the borrower qualifies and the savings exceed the costs. A lower appraisal can make qualifying harder. The base comparison assumes the original mortgage throughout.22

## The 50 metro results

The [metro data](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/metro-results-50.csv) include September 2026 single-family prices and rents, the three down-payment comparisons and the ten-year thresholds. All three down-payment cases use the 7.11% benchmark. The 5% and 10% cases add assumed PMI. A lender can quote different rates for those loans or for jumbo loans.2

## Model verification

The model runs 360 monthly periods. It applies scheduled loan amortization and credits both alternatives with their relative savings. It returns the first nonnegative buyer-minus-renter wealth difference after sale costs and deposit return. The counterfactual investments use one common after-tax return, so a signed relative balance is the difference between two investment accounts; a negative value does not require the renter to borrow at that rate. Initial cash is counted once.

The 20.7-year median, Pittsburgh’s 92-month crossing and Austin’s ten-year thresholds reproduce from the original Zillow, Census and NAIC inputs. The investment-account and discounted-cash-flow versions give the same break-even months.

NAIC state premiums sum to its published national premium total, and mortgage-rate bins include their disclosed rounding residual. Zillow indexes are nonadditive and have no valid “50-metro total.” BLS quarterly means include their observation counts.

The Texas tax examples and county insurance averages describe different homes and policies. A prospective buyer’s costs depend on the specific tax assessment and insurance quote.

## Sources and data locators

1. Author calculations, November 12, 2026: `Buy_or_Rent_50_Metros_Model.xlsx`, `data/metro_results_50.csv`, `data/scenario_results_150.csv`, `data/sensitivity_summary.csv`, `data/headline_monthly_curves.csv`, `data/crossing_audit_150.csv`; formulas and assumptions in `Methodology.md`. All source inputs are full precision; displayed figures are rounded after calculation. ↩
2. Freddie Mac, [PMMS](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), November 12, 2026 results and FAQ borrower profile; [original weekly XLSX](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/historicalweeklydata.xlsx), Sheet1 date and 30-year columns. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
3. Zillow [data and definitions](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/); [SF ZHVI CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvi/Metro_zhvi_uc_sfr_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv); [SF ZORI CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/Metro_zori_uc_sfr_sm_sa_month.csv); [all-property ZORI CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv). Latest column September 30, 2026; RegionIDs in `data/metro_crosswalk.csv`. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
4. Zillow, [ZORI methodology](https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-zori-repeat-rent/), opening definition, weighting and dollar-denomination sections; retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
5. Census, [2025 ACS table-based summary files](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2025/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/), tables B01003, B25090 and B25082; total estimate E001, with margins of error. [Geography labels](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2025/table-based-SF/documentation/Geos20251YR.txt), summary level 310, component 00, Metro Area. Released October 29, 2026; retrieved November 12. The aggregate tax-to-value ratio comes from the survey. ↩
6. NAIC, [Homeowners Report: Data for 2023](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/publication-hmr-zu-homeowners-report.pdf), July 2026, printed pp.1–3 and 8 (definitions/limitations), Table4 state HO-3 all-coverage rows. Exact state PDF pages, premium totals and exposures appear in `data/state_insurance_naic_2023.csv`. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
7. Fannie Mae, [October 12, 2026 forecast](https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/housing-forecast-102026) and [September 11 forecast](https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/housing-forecast-092026), p.1, mortgage-rate and HPI rows, horizon and rate-input footnotes. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
8. MBA, [October 11, 2026 mortgage finance forecast](https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2026/mortgage-finance-forecast-oct-2026.pdf), p.1, 2027 quarter columns and annual-column footnote; annual rate column denotes the Q4 average. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
9. Goldman Sachs, [October 30, 2026 public housing outlook](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-us-housing-in-2027-amid-rising-mortgage-rates), paragraphs beginning “They project” and “Rates for 30-year mortgages.” Public institution-authored summary; underlying client report not accessed. Retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
10. `data/forecasts_current_primary.csv` and `evidence/forecast_lockin_tax_notes.md`, with 17 fact-level source records. Zillow [forecast CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvf_growth/Metro_zhvf_growth_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv), national RegionID102001, BaseDate2026-09-30, forecast column2027-09-30; [November4 rate commentary](https://www.zillow.com/research/mortgage-rate-trends/). NAR November6 original outlook and December16 summit source are recorded in the source register. ↩
11. NAR, November 12, 2026, [October existing-home sales release](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-decreased-5-5-percent-october-nar-report), National Snapshot; [summary PDF](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/2026-11/ehs-10-2026-summary-2026-11-12.pdf). Access date November12; data period October2026. `data/latest_macro_primary.csv`. ↩
12. CFPB, [Figure out how much you want to spend](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/owning-a-home/prepare/figure-out-how-much-you-want-to-spend/), monthly payment and closing-cost sections; retrieved November 12, 2026. ↩
13. Freddie Mac, [Understanding homebuying costs](https://myhome.freddiemac.com/buying/understanding-costs), closing-cost section; retrieved November 12, 2026. Freddie Mac’s general closing-cost range is 2%–5%. ↩
14. CFPB, [When can I remove private mortgage insurance?](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/when-can-i-remove-private-mortgage-insurance-pmi-from-my-loan-en-202/), automatic 78% termination and midpoint provisions; retrieved November 12, 2026. PMI premium itself is an assumed 0.50% annual rate. ↩
15. TDI, [Texas homeowners insurance market overview](https://tdi.texas.gov/general/texas-homeowners-insurance-market-overview.html), annual-premium chart, 2025; [official-linked county export](https://public.tableau.com/views/HO_Avg_Prem_Map_County_2019-2025/County.csv?:showVizHome=no), default filter Year2025, premium with wind and insured coverage. Retrieved November 12, 2026; workbook uses the source’s 2025 filter. ↩
16. `data/texas_tax_example_jurisdictions_2026.csv`, 25 rows, adopted rates, exemptions and exact URLs. [Travis](https://tax-office.traviscountytx.gov/pages/2026RatesExemptions.php), [Dallas](https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/tax/truth-taxation.php), [Harris](https://public.hcad.org/resources/jurlist.asp), [Bexar](https://elections.bexar.org/4299/2026-Official-Tax-Rates-Exemptions); Texas Tax Code [§11.13](https://tcss.legis.texas.gov/resources/TX/htm/TX.11.htm), homestead provisions (accessed November 12, 2026). The calculation applies the listed rates and exemptions to a hypothetical home. ↩
17. IRS [Revenue Procedure2026-35](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-35.pdf), p.13 standard deductions; 26USC [§163](https://uscode.house.gov/us/usc/119-118/t26/s163/), [§164](https://uscode.house.gov/us/usc/119-118/t26/s164/), [§121](https://uscode.house.gov/us/usc/119-118/t26/s121/), and [§170](https://uscode.house.gov/us/usc/119-118/t26/s170/); IRS [net investment income tax](https://www.irs.gov/individuals/net-investment-income-tax). Statutory dates, caps, phaseouts and effective dates in `data/tax_rules_primary.csv`; accessed November 12, 2026. ↩
18. `data/price_rent_history_2015_2026.csv` and `data/history_chart_points.csv`; with source values and retrieval dates. Missing-pair and extraction checks appear in the audit files. ↩
19. FHFA [all-transactions metro CSV](https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_at_metro.csv) and [whole-MSA supplemental XLSX](https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_at_multid_metro.xlsx), 2026Q2 vintage released August 25, 2026; BLS [CPI source](https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/cu/cu.data.0.Current), rent SEHA series and [area crosswalk](https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/cu/cu.area). Exact series IDs, bases and counts in `data/fhfa_bls_relative_price_rent_14metros_since2000.csv`. Next quarterly FHFA release November 24, 2026. BLS [October2026 release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm), November 10, 2026, explains missing October2025 observation. All accessed November12. ↩
20. FHFA [NMDB data page](https://www.fhfa.gov/data/nmdb) and [national outstanding-mortgage CSV ZIP](https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/nmdb/nmdb-outstanding-mortgage-statistics-national-census-areas-quarterly.zip), 2013Q1–2026Q2, released September 30, 2026. Filters: GEOLEVEL National, GEOID USA, MARKET All Mortgages, PCT_INTRATE bins, VALUE1. Data dictionary pp. 5 and 13 defines population, rate and weighting. Original cells and calculations in accompanying CSVs; accessed November12. ↩
21. Fannie Mae [October 13, 2025 housing forecast](https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/housing-forecast-102025), p.1; MBA [October 19, 2025 forecast](https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2025/mortgage-finance-forecast-oct-2025.pdf?sfvrsn=88ba6f3c_1), p.1; original weekly Freddie PMMS. `data/forecasts_backtest_primary.csv` records all 16 comparisons/statuses, including the NAR, Zillow and Goldman gaps. Observed quarters use arithmetic means of dated weekly releases. Access date November 12, 2026. ↩
22. CFPB, [Should I refinance?](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_should_i_refinance_handout.pdf), September 2020, pp.1–2; Freddie Mac, [Planning to refinance](https://myhome.freddiemac.com/refinancing/planning-to-refinance), opening and term-extension sections, and [Working with your lender](https://myhome.freddiemac.com/refinancing/working-with-your-lender), application steps 1–4. Retrieved November 12, 2026. Base model assumes no refinancing. ↩

## Supporting material

- [Excel model (XLSX file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/buy-or-rent-50-metros-model.xlsx)Sourced inputs, live calculations and reported outputs.
- [Source and model data (CSV collection) (ZIP file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-data.zip)Data tables, source references and calculation exports.
- [Metro results 50 (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/metro-results-50.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Metro inputs (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/metro-inputs.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Scenario results 150 (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/scenario-results-150.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Sensitivity summary (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/sensitivity-summary.csv)Download as CSV.
- [Source register (CSV file)](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/search-demand-reports/buy-or-rent-50-metros/source-register.csv)Download as CSV.

[Sulayman Bowles](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about) studies finance at UT Austin and writes about software, AI systems, and markets.

[Biography](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/about)[Writing feed](https://sulayman-bowles.dev/feed.xml)

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Source: https://sulayman-bowles.dev/research/financial-systems/buy-or-rent-50-metros · Sulayman Bowles