{
  "version": 1,
  "authored_on": "2026-10-13",
  "information_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
  "evaluation_date": "2028-10-12",
  "benchmark": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "entry_close": 778.1,
    "basis": "Price return, same evaluation session; reconcile corporate actions. Cash distributions evaluated separately without reinvestment when complete."
  },
  "basis": "Price-return comparison, corporate actions reconciled; dividends reported separately without reinvestment when complete. Preserve original forecasts. No probabilities or portfolio weights.",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "symbol": "ADBE",
      "slug": "adobe-paid-workflows",
      "entry_close": 238.14,
      "central_price_forecast": 365.0,
      "unrounded_base_model_price": 366.5168053057554,
      "price_return_forecast": 0.5327118501721677,
      "assumed_cash_dividends_per_original_share": 0.0,
      "latest_disclosed_share_date": "2026-09-18",
      "operating_predictions": [
        [
          "By latest available 2028 trailing period",
          "Revenue above $30bn; cash after CFO-SBC above $9bn; comparable ARR growth at least7%"
        ],
        [
          "Capital allocation",
          "Net shares near359m, with affordable purchases and no reliance on expanding debt"
        ],
        [
          "Reconsider",
          "Two successive ARR readings below5%, GAAP operating margin below30%, or trailing cash after SBC below$7.5bn"
        ]
      ],
      "model_inputs_sha256": "11ca6cc7ed5db6a858aa6b2a9b1218f23464a1bd69fc3edc616236b1ca04beec",
      "scenario_outputs_sha256": "8c002f1185e5e4537f242834b17427ffadfae5d3a4fed000d451644bd08bcb7e"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PYPL",
      "slug": "paypal-margin-dollar-recovery",
      "entry_close": 56.05,
      "central_price_forecast": 85.0,
      "unrounded_base_model_price": 83.19158587400086,
      "price_return_forecast": 0.5165031222123104,
      "assumed_cash_dividends_per_original_share": 1.12,
      "latest_disclosed_share_date": "2026-07-22",
      "operating_predictions": [
        [
          "By Q2 2028",
          "Trailing TM dollars ex-customer interest above$16bn; strict distribution-cash measure above$5bn"
        ],
        [
          "Consumer demand",
          "Two quarters of branded-checkout TPV growth at least4% currency-neutral; monthly active-account growth above2%"
        ],
        [
          "Reconsider",
          "Two negative checkout-growth quarters, ex-interest TM below$14bn, or strict annual cash below$4bn"
        ]
      ],
      "model_inputs_sha256": "11ca6cc7ed5db6a858aa6b2a9b1218f23464a1bd69fc3edc616236b1ca04beec",
      "scenario_outputs_sha256": "8c002f1185e5e4537f242834b17427ffadfae5d3a4fed000d451644bd08bcb7e"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CROX",
      "slug": "crocs-cash-and-brand-test",
      "entry_close": 116.9,
      "central_price_forecast": 165.0,
      "unrounded_base_model_price": 165.29948896034307,
      "price_return_forecast": 0.41146278870829756,
      "assumed_cash_dividends_per_original_share": 0.0,
      "latest_disclosed_share_date": "2026-07-23",
      "operating_predictions": [
        [
          "By latest available 2028 trailing period",
          "Crocs brand revenue above$3.6bn; recurring cash around$645m; fewer than44m outstanding shares"
        ],
        [
          "Operating margin",
          "Consolidated adjusted operating margin above21%; evidence that direct expansion retains profit"
        ],
        [
          "Reconsider",
          "Both Crocs geographies contract twice, margin below20%, cash below$500m with debt-funded purchases, or a material tax payment crowds out repurchases"
        ]
      ],
      "model_inputs_sha256": "11ca6cc7ed5db6a858aa6b2a9b1218f23464a1bd69fc3edc616236b1ca04beec",
      "scenario_outputs_sha256": "8c002f1185e5e4537f242834b17427ffadfae5d3a4fed000d451644bd08bcb7e"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EXPE",
      "slug": "expedia-network-and-cash",
      "entry_close": 268.47,
      "central_price_forecast": 360.0,
      "unrounded_base_model_price": 360.8221861871633,
      "price_return_forecast": 0.34093194770365387,
      "assumed_cash_dividends_per_original_share": 3.84,
      "latest_disclosed_share_date": "2026-07-24",
      "operating_predictions": [
        [
          "By Q2 2028",
          "Trailing B2B revenue above$7bn; B2B adjusted EBITDA margin at least25%; B2C margin at least31%"
        ],
        [
          "Shareholder cash",
          "Conservative travel-WC/compensation cash sensitivity above$3bn and shares below114m"
        ],
        [
          "Reconsider",
          "B2B margin below23% twice, B2C margin below28%, or annual cash sensitivity below$2.2bn"
        ]
      ],
      "model_inputs_sha256": "11ca6cc7ed5db6a858aa6b2a9b1218f23464a1bd69fc3edc616236b1ca04beec",
      "scenario_outputs_sha256": "8c002f1185e5e4537f242834b17427ffadfae5d3a4fed000d451644bd08bcb7e"
    }
  ]
}